Projecting the Pirates Opening Day Rotation

The Pirates go into the 2024 season with a lot of potential and ultimately the fate of the season will be up to the starting rotation. As it currently stands, the for sure “locks” would be Mitch Keller, Martin Perez, and Marco Gonzales. However, the last two spots are really up in the air. There are a lot of ways that the Pirates can round out the rotation between Contreras, Ortiz, Priester, Jones, and other veterans like Anderson, Peralta, etc. However, in terms of performance in the spring, I believe Luis Ortiz & Jared Jones will lock down the final two spots. 

1. Mitch Keller
2. Martin Perez 
3. Marco Gonzales 
4. Luis Ortiz 
5. Jared Jones 

Mitch Keller is obviously going to be our ace, Keller broke onto the MLB scene last season in terms of national recognition. The Pirates and fans already knew what Keller could do, but the MLB did not. Keller showed out in 2023 going 13-9 with a 4.21 ERA, while striking out 210 batters. Keller really got the secondary pitches to come along while maintaining his dominant fastball. Keller’s sweeper-like slider along with his two seam gave him a great advantage. Going into 2024 with a brand new contract extension, Keller looks to aim for bigger goals hopefully adding another 200+ strikeout season and All Star Game appearance. 

Martin Perez was a big get for the Pirates in MLB free agency and so far, he has shown out in Spring Training. Perez in 2023 was moved to the bullpen for a little along with being taken off the playoff roster due to how great the Texas Rangers rotation was. This led to the Rangers letting Perez go onto the market and allowing the Pirates to swipe up the veteran southpaw. Even though his 2023 season wasn’t great, in 2022 Perez was a top 10 pitcher in the American League and went to the All Star Game where he also got CY Young votes. In the spring for the Pirates, Perez has appeared in 3 games, going for a total of 12 innings striking out 13 batters with a 0.92 WHIP. Perez has allowed just one run to score and that was against Baltimore off a solo homer. 

Marco Gonzales was a sneaky signing for the Pirates as Gonzales has always been a very reliable starter in the past. Marco was injured for most of the 2023 season for Seattle which led to him being involved in a trade package that sent him to Atlanta. Shortly after that, the Pirates ended up trading for Gonzales shortly after he arrived in Atlanta. Gonzales is a guy who will continuously give you 5 innings allowing a few runs, however, when he has his good games, he is very much capable of giving you 6 innings allowing no more than 2 runs. In 2024, Gonzales has appeared in three games. In those three games, Gonzales is 0-0 and has a 5.40 ERA along with a 1.70 WHIP. However, those numbers are a little fluctuated due to his first two outings. In his first two outings in almost 7 months, Gonzales allowed 5 ER in just 5 innings. Following that outing though, we saw what an effective Gonzales can do for the Pirates when he went 5.0IP allowing just 1 run on 1 hit against Baltimore. 

Luis Ortiz is the guy we believe will rise from the pack of Contreras and Priester. Ortiz made a lot of adjustments from his 2023 campaign; the biggest one being getting his velocity back. We saw Ortiz in 2022 rise up the ranks and debut late into the season where he was throwing 99MPH with ease, however in 2023 we saw it dip all the way down to 93MPH. Though in Spring Training, Ortiz has relatively stayed around 95-97MPH on his fastball and also showing great command on his breaking ball. So far, Ortiz has appeared in 4 contests where he has gone 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA. In those 4 contests, Ortiz has pitched 12IP and has struck out 15 opposing batters. The biggest key to Ortiz’s success in 2024 will come down to his control. His 1.70 WHIP in 2023 will not cut it in 2024 with veterans like Lauer and German eyeing to make it back to the big leagues. 

Jared Jones 100% deserves to make this rotation. Jones will have a big impact on this team, and he has shown exactly what he can do this Spring. Jones has appeared in 5 games, pitching 11.1 innings allowing ZERO runs. Jones has also struck out 10 batters with his elite fastball/cutter combo topping out at 101MPH. Jones in 2023 was a prospect that caught a lot of fans eyes but his inability to get deep into ball games caused some alarm for the Pirates. So far, he has shown those problems last season could very well be a fluke. If Jones is able to maintain his elite arsenal with good command, you can argue that Jones could end up getting a lot of Rookie of The Year votes for the National League award. 

All in all, coming into the spring, I did not expect to be this confident in this rotation. However, the spring season has given me a lot of hope. Even though there are a few questions in Marco Gonzalez, Luis Ortiz, and Jared Jones, the Pirates recently signed two veterans in Eric Lauer and Domingo German who will likely begin the year at Triple-A Indianapolis to ramp up to be in the big league locker room by late April if needed. Long term, I see this rotation slightly changing where we see Domingo German taking Luis Ortiz’s or Jared Jones spot depending on who is less effective come late April.