Debunking the Benefits of Tanking in the NFL

Watching the Washington Commanders pull off the stunning upset over the 1 seed Lions last night renewed the vigor from a certain sect of Steelers fans. The ones that plead the Steelers to just tank. It’s understandable why that option would be appealing for fans. Your team gets the number one or number two pick, a chance to rebuild your coaching staff, and then the next season you’re in the conference championship…right? In reality, most fans are deluded by recent bias when they point to the success of the commanders. Tanking doesn't work like that. 

Looking at the Commanders alone, their success has not happened in a vacuum. It is important to note that Jayden Daniels was the 17th quarterback to start for the Commanders since 2010 and the 3rd quarterback they took in the first round and the 5th quarterback total simultaneously. On top of that Dan Quinn is 7th head coach since 2007, Kliff Kingsbury 8th offensive coordinator in the same time, and last night their first playoff win since 2005 and first playoff appearance since 2020. Point is, the commanders have been swinging at new head coaches and quarterbacks for nearly two decades before they finally landed on the right combination of head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback. This is not a team that “decided” to tank, knowing they would be successful the next season. They were a team that finally got it right after 20 years of trying. Keep in mind, that Daniels was the lesser touted prospect when compared to Willaims. 

Tanking rarely works in the NFL. Remember the “tank for Tua” season? He is in his fifth season and has made the playoffs once and lost that game where he threw for 199 yards, a touchdown and a pick. To be fair many Dolphins fans say they wish they had drafted Justin Herbert, who was taken a pick later. He is 0-2 throwing for 273 yards and a touchdown in his first loss and throwing for 242 yards, a touchdown and 4 interceptions in his latest loss.  Joe Burrow was the first overall pick, and he has been an impressive 5-2 in two postseasons, but in his other three he has had two season ending injuries and just missed the postseason. What about Jalen Hurts? He is 3-3 in the playoffs but was taken in the second round, so no tanking needed by the Eagles.

If you are asking why there is only a focus on postseason success, the answer is because what Steelers fans want. They are clamoring for a quarterback or coach to take them over the top, from a middle of the road season and first round playoff exit to playoff success and even a Super Bowl. 

However, the idea that simply tanking for a quarterback would solve the issue, isn’t really true. Since 2015, 35 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round and 24 taken at pick number ten or higher. Of those 24 taken in the top ten, nine of them have actually won a playoff game, that is just under 40%. However, it is important to note that those quarterbacks include Trevor Lawerence, who just won four games and will have his 3rd coach next year, Baker Mayfeild on his 4th team, and Jared Goff who just got bounced in the first round after two bad interceptions. The other 60% of those quarterbacks have been unmitigated disasters with names like Josh Rosen, Jameis Winston, Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, Mitch Trubisky, Daniel Jones…just to name a few. Keep in mind these are just the quarterbacks taking in the top 10. Looking deeper into the first round you find names like Kenny Pickett (sorry, had to do it), Paxton Lynch, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance…again to name a few. 

Even quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are 6-5 and 3-4 in the playoffs respectively. Three of four of Lamar’s losses came in the first round. Josh Allen has only faced a first-round elimination once but has only won two consecutive playoff games one time. Point being, tanking only guarantees that you're bad. The bottom end of taking a quarterback in the first round is that you draft a someone who moves on (Kenny Pickett, been there done that), in the middle you stay in the middle making the playoffs maybe winning a game, and at the top end up roughly .500 with some playoff wins that will make fans feel better. Patrick Mahomes is the exception that proves the rule. 

I say all this to bring the Steelers situation into perspective. Yes, it is frustrating to have a lack of success in the postseason, but it isn’t exactly unique. The fact that they have happened in succession is the biggest issue, but that's the only thing that sets the Steelers struggle apart. Tanking for a top pick at quarterback is more than likely going to end up in needing yet another quarterback. The “can’t miss” prospect in Trevor Lawerence still hasn’t found success. So, the idea that someone like Arch Manning who is going to play maybe a season at Texas is going to be the Steelers savior is far from a guarantee. 

I will be the first to admit that quarterback play has been the Steelers main issue for a number of seasons now, and if we are being fair, when you evaluate Tomlin and his playoff woes, quarterback play is at the center of it. Tomlin has started an aging Big Ben, Mason Rudolph, and old Russell Wilson in his recent playoff games.

Big Ben threw 4 early picks against the Browns despite throwing 4 touchdowns to end the game in 2020. In 2021 against the Chiefs, Ben threw for only 215 and managed 2 late touchdowns in his final playoff game, Mason Rudolph did throw two touchdowns but also threw a key interception to get down big early, and finally this year Russell did not throw his first touchdown until midway in the third quarter.

While it is fair to criticize team readiness and the performance of the defense and have that fall squarely on Tomlin’s shoulders, the quarterback play has been beyond his control. He has made efforts to move on from Ben. They drafted Mason much to the chagrin of Big Ben who openly critiqued the move, they signed Dwayne Haskins to give him a second chance prior to his tragic passing. They drafted Kenny Pickett post Ben’s retirement, and while many will critique that pick, I ask what other options did the Steelers have. Start Mason or Mitch the whole season? That was a poor draft class, where none of those quarterbacks are starting or even on the same teams that drafted them. However, the Steelers had to take a quarterback. Nearly every team has taken a bad quarterback because they didn’t have one on the roster. Finally, this season they signed Russ for the veteran minimum and gave up a 6th round pick for Justin Fields. 

So, the Steelers have made an effort to try and find their next franchise quarterback, however it is just not that easy. Guys like Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts who are taken later and turn out to be hidden gems, are rare, but not impossible, but also are not as costly if they don’t pan out. On the other hand, picking a quarterback in the higher portion of the first round means you're more likely to end up with someone like Danile Jones than Patrick Mahomes, which means you wasted a premium, a season, and have to start again. No one wins without a quarterback, but tanking rarely gets you the quarterback that takes you to the next level.