Steelers quarterback situation won't be easy to fix anytime soon

Right now, the only position Steelers fans are worried about is quarterback, and as the offseason wears on that concern continues to grow. Since Big Ben retired in 2021 the Steelers have had Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; none of whom have proven to be the answer to moving past the status quo of roughly 10 wins and getting past the first round of the playoffs. As free agency has progressed, the Steelers have yet to make a compelling move, outside of bringing back Mason Rudolph which leaves fans to assume that the Steelers will be picking a QB in the first round…again.

As of today, Mason Rudolph and Syler Thompson are the only quarterbacks under contract for Pittsburgh. Russell Wilson seems to be on the outs in Pittsburgh and Aaron Rodgers is…talking to trees and walking on the beach in a blanket like the main character in a rom com. None of which feel like very promising answers to the starting quarterback position. Which again leads us to a first round quarterback.

To be clear I think that is what the Steelers should do, and really have to do. They need to face the music and be aggressive in drafting what they think to be the future of the Steelers. However, this a growing sentiment that if the Steelers could just snare a top 10 pick, just be bad for a season, everything would be right in the world. Which is an odd narrative considering many of the same folks claim the Steelers have a bad coaching staff. Both things can’t be true, but I digress.

I shared in a previous article why “tanking” doesn’t work at least not the first go round, but I wanted to frame the idea of drafting a first round quarterback in the right context. The running critique of the Steelers and Mike Tomlin is that they win around 10 games and lose in the first round. Thereby that is the metric we need to be evaluating any future Steelers QB at. Are they going to push the Steelers beyond that current metric?

For starters, the average lifespan of a QB in the NFL is around 4.5 seasons before they are out of the league, no matter what round they are drafted in. Even some of the more talented quarterbacks that were drafted had short times in the league, like Andrew Luck who retired due to his health after 7 seasons and Blake Bortles who made it to the AFC championship game was out after 6 seasons. Nearly 50 quarterbacks have been taken in the first round 17 of them are now on their 2nd+ team, Sam Darnold being on his 5th.

Longevity aside, our main concern here is winning. Taking out the quarterbacks drafted in the last two years, given a small sample size makes it hard to determine success, the average winning percentage of first round QBs is .450, 7 to 8 games between a 16 or 17 game regular season. This includes the percentages of the likes of Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, etc, and I rounded up for every QB. Looking at the last two draft classes, they won the average winning percentage about .460 which is just under 8 games a year. For context the Steelers have won 10 games a season since 2010 or roughly 59% of their games in a 17 game season or around 63% in the former 16 game seasons.

Obviously these statistics do not exist in a vacuum as a lot of these quarterbacks were drafted to bad organizations with bad coaching staffs and cultures, but it is data that is worth noting. 

The magic number that Steelers fans have been clamoring to eclipse is 10 wins in a season, so 11 wins means a roughly .647 winning percentage in a 17 game season. So if you evaluate how many quarterbacks across the 50 drafted in 15 years, 4 win more than 11 games. Jayden Daniels did it this year and Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes all average more than 11 wins a season. Thats 8% of QBs.

Joe Burrow surprisingly only has won 55% of his games since coming into the league. Obviously Injury plays a huge role here but, being hurt isn’t better than not winning.

The next big sticking point for Steelers fans is winning at least one play off game. This number is a bit more favorable as 17 of these QBs have won at least one playoff game which is about 30% which is a much higher success rate. It is important to note however that some of these QBs include Mitchell Trubisky, Daniel Jones, Black Bortles, RGIII, and Deshaun Watson.

Obviously the QBs that have been drafted in the last 2 to 3 years still have time to be franchise guys like Drake Maye, CJ Stroud or Bo  Nix, and there is still hope for guys like Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawerence. These guys certainly pass the eye test.

My point is, that the idea that just drafted a top 10 pick or first round QB will be the final piece in the Steelers puzzle, is a fallacy. The odds are higher that you get the next Zach Wilson not the next Josh Allen. I don’t say this as an advertisement that the Steelers should avoid taking a QB in the first round; but to say that fans need to measure their expectations of success when it comes to these guys. From 2010 to now 14 quarterbacks have taken 2 or more quarterbacks. 

That is just the reality of drafting QBs in this league. Oftentimes those labeled as “can't miss” or “future of the franchise” QBs rarely live up to the hype. And the QBs that are projected to fail, often are the hidden gems. Remember Joe Burrow’s small hands? Or the flack the Packers got for drafting the obscure Jordan Love? What about Josh Allen having a sub 50% completion percentage?

Even though I think that any QB that the Steelers could get at 21st would be the equivalent of a 2nd or 3rd QB in other drafts, I still think they have to do it. Or they need to figure out a way to trade up for Shadeur. They need to draft in the first round this year, and next year, maybe even the year after that. BUT, that is what the Steelers are staring down the barrel of. Aaron Rodgers is not winning the Steelers another Super Bowl and any QB that is available in free agency, isn’t going too either. So the draft is the best and ONLY option now. 

However, we need to dispel the idea that is going to take one pick or one bad season for the Steelers to figure it out.

Disclaimer: It should be noted that the numbers below do not include Dwayne Haskins out of respect to his passing.