Watt v. Garrett – Only One Steps Up When it Matters Most

Context/Definitions

·         When I use “opposing territory” that means the sack occurred when the offense was on their side of the field.

·         When I use “home territory” I refer to the sack occurring when the defense was on their side of the field. I.e. - the  closer you are to the defense’s end zone, the further you are in a defense’s home territory, and vice versa.

·         Scoring territory refers to the opposing offense being at the defense’s 40 or further (39, 38, etc.), which is where teams can consider kicking a field goal, albeit a 50-yard one.

·         Goal-line downs are any downs from the defense’s 10-yard line, or closer, to the endzone.

·         As far as overtime is concerned, there was only one game where it came up, but I chose to group OT with late 4th quarter statistics, largely because those two scenarios are essentially the same.

·         Anytime there is no timestamp included in a 2nd or 4th quarter category, it's due to the time being well outside of 5 minutes, and therefore irrelevant. I was charting plays made during crunch time; thus, those plays outside of 5 minutes are not timestamped. 

Alright. Now that we have definitions out of the way, let me walk you through my process. First, I went through every single game’s play-by-play where TJ Watt and Myles Garrett registered a half-sack or more. I charted the quarter, down, time on the clock, and whether the offense ended their drive with a touchdown after Garrett or Watt registered a sack. We’re going to walk quarter by quarter before I wrap things up with a comprehensive, all-encompassing, statistical outlook on these two premier pass rushers.

1st Quarter

Watt, 1st Quarter:

(3rd and 13 at Pitt 38) - Sack and fumble | (1st and 10 at CLE 28) – sack | (1st and 10 at CHI 43) – sack | (2nd and 5 at BLT 16) – sack | (3rd and 6 at CLE 40) – sack | (1st and 10 at Pitt 39) - Sack and fumble | (3rd and goal at Pitt 7) – half sack

Total - 6.5 Sacks and two forced fumbles in the first quarter. 3 sacks on first down, 1 sack on second down, 2.5 sacks on third down, 4 sacks in opposing territory, and 2.5 sacks in home and scoring territory.

Garrett, 1st Quarter:

(2nd and 6 at CLE 16 – sack (ENDED IN TD) | 

(1st and 10 at BLT 47) – sack

Total – 2 sacks in the 1st quarter. 1 sack in home and scoring territory, 1 sack in opposing territory, 1 sack on first down, and 1 sack on second down.     

Overall:           

For Myles Garrett defenders, this discrepancy is both alarming and intriguing. I can’t tell you why Garrett only has two first-quarter sacks as opposed to Watt’s 6.5. Watt played fewer games and snaps than Garrett, so it’s not because Watt had more opportunities. I believe it is due to Watt’s snap-to-sack (for the year) percentage, which was 17%, compared to Garrett’s 13%.

Let’s get into some other percentages; 12.5% of Garrett’s sacks came in the first quarter, whereas 26.6% of Watt’s sacks came in the first quarter of games. Garrett’s lowest percentage of sacks can be found in the first quarter, whereas Watt’s second highest percentage of sacks can be found in the first quarter. 

Watt registered 4 more sacks and had a 14.1% higher sack percentage in the first quarter than Garrett. Watt also had 2.5 sacks on third down, whereas Garrett had none. And as Garrett only had two sacks, Watt, of course, additionally beat Garrett in the first, second down, home, and opposing territory categories.

2nd Quarter

Watt, 2nd Quarter:

(2nd and 8 at PIT 35, Bears week 7) – sack | (3rd and goal at PIT 4, 0:32, Titans) – half sack | (3rd and 2 at PIT 39, 0:49, Browns) – sack | (1st and goal at PIT 6, 0:28) – sack

Total: 3.5 sacks in the 2nd Quarter. 1 sack on first and second down, 1.5 sacks on third down, and 2.5 sacks in the final 49 seconds or later. All 3.5 sacks came in home and scoring territory and 2.5 sacks came on goal-line downs or 3rd down.                                                            

Garret, 2nd Quarter:

(2nd and 9 at CHI 19) – half sack, (3rd and 5 at CHI 38, 3:48) – sack, (2nd and 10 at CLE 11, 1:55) – sack, (1st and 10 at CLE 16, 1:12) – half sack, (2nd and 10 at BLT 20, 0:49) – sack, fumble

Total: 4 sacks, 1 forced fumble. 0.5 sacks on first down, 2.5 sacks on second down, and 1 sack on third down. 2.5 sacks in final 1:55. 1.5 sacks in home and scoring territory, 2.5 sacks in opposing territory.       

Overall:

Garrett edges out Watt here by registering 0.5 more sacks than Watt in the 2nd quarter. Only 15.5% of Watt’s sacks came in the 2nd quarter, his lowest out of all categories. On the other hand, 22% of Garrett’s sacks came in the 2nd quarter, tied for 2nd out of all his categories. 3 of Garrett’s sacks came in the final 1:55 of the 2nd quarter, good for 15.5% of his sacks registering as coming in the final 2 minutes or less.

I must make a note here, as Garrett’s only sacks in the final 2 minutes of halves, come in the 2nd quarter. Anyways, 2.5 of Watt’s sacks came in the final 49 seconds of games, good for 11% of his sack total.

Garrett had 0.5 fewer sacks on 1st down than Watt, 1.5 more sacks than Watt on 2nd down, and 0.5 fewer sacks than Watt on 3rd down. A higher percentage of Garrett’s sacks came in the 2nd quarter than Watt’s and in the final 2 minutes. Keep in mind what I said about Garrett’s sacks coming in the final 2 minutes of halves, as we move forward.

I want to point out that Watt had 2 more sacks in home/scoring territory than Garrett. Garrett also registered 2.5 sacks to Watt’s none, in the category of opposing territory sacks. Frankly, while Garrett scored 0.5 more sacks than Watt in the 2nd quarter, Watt made his plays when defending the end zone, and more plays in crunch time. To be as mediate as possible, I’m calling it a tie, but I still lean Watt’s way in the 2nd quarter, due to the impact his plays had on the offense of the opponent.

3rd Quarter

Watt, 3rd Quarter:

(2nd and goal at Pitt 8) – sack, (2nd and 9 at DET 19) – sack, (2nd and 8 at BLT 43) – half sack, (3rd and 13 at TEN 20) – sack, (3 and 7 at CLE 43,) – sack

Total: 4.5 sacks in the third quarter. 2.5 sacks on second down and 2 sacks on third down. 3.5 sacks in opposing territory, 1 sack in home and scoring territory                

Garret, 3rd Quarter:

(3rd and 8 at CHI 22) – sack, (2nd and 9 at MIN 30) – half sack, (1st and 10 at LAC 35) – sack, (1st and 10 at ARI 25) – sack, (2nd and 6 at CIN 24) – sack, (2nd and 14 at CLE 15) – sack

Total: 5.5 sacks in 3rd quarter. 2 sacks on first down, 2.5 sacks on second down, and 1 on third down. 1 sack in home and scoring territory, and 4.5 sacks in opposing territory.          

Overall:

Garrett clearly gains the edge here over Watt, beating him out with one more sack in the third quarter of games. Strangely, both registered most of their sacks in opposing territory, each only sacking the opposing quarterback once in home territory the entire season. Garrett beat Watt in the first down category, scoring 2 to Watt’s zero. Watt and Garrett each had 2.5 sacks on second down, and Watt had 2 sacks on third down, as opposed to Garrett’s one.

Garrett is ahead of Watt in nearly every category here, so let’s dig into some percentages and see if it holds up. First, 34% of Garrett’s sacks came in the third quarter, by far his highest percentage. It’s safe to say that Garrett played at his best during the third quarter, where most of his sacks came, compared to quarters one, two, and three.

Watt, on the other hand, registered 20% of his sacks in the third quarter, his second-lowest mark. Garret clearly wins this category as we head into the fourth quarter.

4th Quarter

Watt, 4th Quarter:

(1st and 10 at Pitt 42. 1:53 Time)– sack, (3rd and 4 at GB 43, 2:15 Time) – sack, (3rd and 4 at Pitt 45, 8:01 Time – OT) – sack, (1st and 10 at SEA 13, 4:16 Time – OT) – sack & fumble, (3rd and 5 at CHI 23, 7:18 Time) – sack, (2nd and 10 at BLT 20, 7:14 Time) – sack, (2nd and 10 at BLT 36, 1:21 Time) – sack & fumble, (2nd and 2 at CLE 42, 4:30 Time) – sack

Total: 8 sacks in the 4th quarter and OT, 2 forced fumbles. 2 sacks on first down, 3 sacks on second down, and 3 sacks on third down. 6 sacks in the final 5 minutes or OT, 5 sacks in the final 2:15 or OT, 6 sacks in opposing territory, and 2 sacks in home (not scoring) territory.  

Garret, 4th Quarter:

(3rd and 10 at KC 49, 3:41 Time) – sack, (3rd and 9 at CHI 26, 9:30 Time) – sack, (3rd and 2 at DEN 33, 15:00 Time) – half sack, (2nd and goal at CLE 10, 5:59 Time)– sack (NEXT PLAY TD)

Total: 3.5 sacks in the fourth quarter. 1 sack on second down, 2.5 sacks on third down. 1 sack in the final five minutes. 2.5 sacks in opposing territory 1 sack in home and scoring territory.         

Overall:

It’s clear here who wins this category. Watt beat’s out Garrett by 4.5 sacks, having one more sack on first down, three more sacks on second down, and 0.5 more sacks than Garrett on third down. The disparity is even greater when we look at some other numbers. 35.5% of Watt’s sacks came in the fourth quarter or overtime, by far his biggest percentage in the sacks-to-quarter category. In contrast, Garrett registered only 22% of his sacks in the fourth quarter, which was tied for his 2nd highest percentage in the sacks-to-quarter category.

Watt did most of his damage in enemy territory, coming in with 6 sacks in that department. He had 6 sacks in the final 5 minutes or overtime of games, and 5 sacks in the final 2:15 minutes or overtime of games. By comparison, only one of Watt’s sacks came in the final five minutes of games, and it was at the 3:41 mark, nowhere close to the 2-minute mark.

Some other statistics concerning Watt: 37.5% of fourth quarter sacks came on third down, 62.5% of fourth quarter sacks came under 2:15 or OT, 75% of fourth quarter sacks came in final 5 minutes or OT, 75% of fourth quarter sacks came in opposing territory, and 25% of fourth quarter sacks came in home territory.

Garrett, for comparison, had 71.4% of his fourth-quarter sacks on third down, 28% of his sacks coming in the final 5 minutes of games, and no sacks under the 3:41 mark. 71% of Garrett’s sacks came in opposing territory and 28% of his sacks came in home territory.

It’s clear that Watt is the winner in this category.

Other Relevant Data

Any time TJ Watt sacked the quarterback the opposing offense never got more than 3 points that drive. Garrett, on the other hand, sacked the quarterback twice on offensive possessions that ended in touchdowns. How relevant is this? Not very, but I thought I’d leave it here.

Myles Garrett had one game with 4.5 sacks. After that game, his game with the most sacks was 1.5, which happened twice. TJ Watt had two games with 2 sacks, two games with 1.5 sacks, one game with 3, one with 3.5, and one with 4. Surely Garrett was more consistent with sacks then? Well, no. Doesn’t help that Garret went three games in a row, in December, without recording a sack.

Watt registered:

·         6 sacks on first down, 7.5 sacks on second down, and 9 sacks on third down - out of 22.5

·         12.5 sacks in opposing territory and 10 sacks in home territory           

·         8 sacks in the final 2:15 of halves or OT.

·         71% of second-quarter sacks came in the final 49 seconds           

·         Watt had 50% of sacks came in 2nd and 4th quarter                                               

·         8 sacks came within scoring territory (40 yards)                                       

·         26.6% of sacks came on 1st down

·         33.4% of sacks came on second down

·         40% of sacks came on third down                                               

·         35.5% of sacks came in the final 2:15 or OT                     

·         55.5% of sacks came in opposing territory                                                                                             

·         35.5% of sacks came within scoring territory 

·         44.4% of sacks came in home territory                                                                                       

·         64.5% of sacks came outside of the scoring territory

·         100% of second-quarter sacks came within home (and scoring) territory                           

·         85.7% of 2nd quarter sacks came on 3rd down or goal-line downs      

Garrett registered:   

·         4 sacks on first down 

·         7 sacks on second down

·         5 sacks on third down                                                                                             

·         4.5 sacks came within scoring territory (2 TD's were scored regardless of sack)                       

·         25% of sacks came on first down

·         43% of sacks came on second down                                                                                                   

·         31% of sacks came on third down                                                                                                       

·         4.5 sacks in home territory                                                                                               

·         11.5 sacks in opposing territory                                                                                                                           

·         28% of sacks came in home territory

·         72% of sacks came in opposing territory                                                                                       

·         2.5 sacks in final 1:55 or less of 2nd and 4th quarters,

·         3.5 sacks under 5 minutes                     

·         15.5% of sacks came during an opposing TD Drive                                                                                           

·         28% of sacks came within scoring territory     

-          72% of sacks came outside of scoring territory                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Final Comparison

I know that Browns (or Myles Garrett) fans will argue that because Watt had more sacks, these statistics might be skewed. In an attempt to avoid that, I used percentages of total sack numbers to level the playing field. E.g., player A may have 10 sacks in a season compared to Watt’s 22, but if player A acquired all 10 sacks in the 4th quarter, and Watt had 3, player A’s percentage of 4th quarter sacks will be much higher.

In fact, this has the potential to slightly skew itself in Garrett’s favor, as fewer sacks equal a higher percentage number given to Garrett’s sacks as opposed to Watt’s. The formula is not perfect (like my math skills), but I hope it will help shed some light on the answer to my original question; “who plays better when it matters most?”

First off, Watt had 4 more sacks on third down than Garrett, in a ratio of 9 to 5. Or, if you like percentages, 40% of Watt’s sacks came on third down, compared to Garrett’s 31%. Watt also had 11.5 sacks in the second and fourth quarters, as opposed to Garrett’s 7.5. Watt totaled 8.5 sacks in the final five minutes of halves or overtime, whereas Garrett registered only 3.5 sacks in the final five minutes of halves or overtime.

Watt also registered 3.5 more sacks in scoring territory than Garrett, meaning when the opposing offense put greater pressure on the defense, Watt stepped up more. All in all, Watt played better when his team needed it most. That is not to say that Garrett is not a great player. He is. But the area where Watt proves his true dominance, outside of plain sack numbers, is in crunch time.

Perhaps Garrett will improve, and maybe it's why he seems to disappear late in games – he doesn’t play as well as you would hope when his team needs it most. As for now, Watt is the clear winner in this discussion and my question has been answered. The man who steps up to the plate, when the lights are on, and you have to have it is… T.J. Watt.