Given Draft History, Steelers Should Avoid QB at Pick 20
Story by Yinzer Crazy Co-Founder Mike Nicastro. Follow him on Twitter @MikedUpSports1
So you’re desperate for a new Quarterback, right? Well, I'm here to ask you to be careful what you wish for.
This piece was inspired by my own twitter rants last week, which were met with serious vitriol. Steelers fans getting angry on twitter over less than 180 characters? No, that just can’t be the case!
If you missed out on that rigamarole, I’m happy to brief you on why I think the Steelers’ drafting a QB with the 20th pick would be a big mistake. It’s no secret that Mike Tomlin and Kevin Colbert have been dialed in on QB prospects this offseason, including their recent Senior Bowl trip where Liberty QB Malik Willis became the latest flavor of the week in the Burgh’. It’s been reported by multiple accredited outlets that the Steelers are “infatuated” with Willis (but who really knows at this point?), a dual-threat who at his ceiling, has some Kyler Murray/Lamar Jackson traits in his style of play.
Obviously, if you don’t have a franchise quarterback, you don’t have much of a chance to win in the NFL. The Joe Burrow-effect has AFC North teams on high-alert. And when you look around at the rest of the conference, and see names like “Mahomes,” “Allen,” “Herbert,” and Jackson -- you’re likely to spit out your coffee at the thought of Mason Rudolph leading the Steelers into their post-Ben Roethlisberger chapter.
Unfortunately for Tomlin and Colbert, the black & gold are in a major quandary when it comes to the NFL Draft. They currently have the 20th overall selection, which means they will likely have to wait around, while QB needy teams such as the Panthers, Falcons, Broncos, Commanders, and Colts, get their choice of the cream of the crop. The cream of a relatively weak crop is likely Pitt QB Kenny Pickett, who we’re all quite familiar with, and potentially the fast-rising Willis. You may be saying,
"so what if they are both gone, right? “If the Steelers like someone at 20 - they should take him!”
Famous last words. Get this: In the last 5 years, QB’s drafted after pick 15 have not been inspiring. Quite frankly, they’ve stunk. Just take a look at this draft list, dating back to 2016: (drafthistory.com)
By my calculations, just 2 of the 50 Quarterbacks selected post pick-15, over the last SIX years, have been “above-average” starters in the league (Lamar Jackson & Dak Prescott.)
That’s good for an alarming 4% success rate.
You could certainly argue that the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts should also be on that list, but he’s not getting a ton of love in the city of brotherly love, after one and half pedestrian years.
“Ok, I get it. So what’s the solution, Mike!?”
Here’s my plea to management:
Trade up, or avoid the position entirely in the 1st round.
Because it’s likely, given the data, that you’d be setting your franchise back for years if you miss. Just like the Browns did by drafting Deshone Kizer with pick 20 in 2017. Or the Jets, when they took Christian Hackenberg at pick 20 of the 2nd round in 2016.
Like I previously alluded to, most evaluators above my pay grade have rated this upcoming QB draft class as “weak,” which further emphasizes the mistake that could be made by panicking and drafting the 4th or 5th ranked QB in the class with pick 20.
If they genuinely feel that Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis is a “face of the franchise” type QB, they should mortgage multiple future draft assets to move up and take their guy. You make that move every single time in this league when you’re “quarterback needy.” The Bills did it with Josh Allen. The Chiefs did it with Patrick Mahomes. So on and so forth. It's not as dire to give up draft assets, especially when considering that the Steelers will have over 40 million in effective salary cap space in 22’ (according to overthecap.com) which means they can fill multiple needs such as center, nose Tackle, and linebacker, through free agency.
They aren’t trading for Aaron Rodger or Kyler Murray. And it’s highly unlikely that Russell Wilson will be moving out of Seattle anytime soon.
So if they fall in love with a QB prospect, in my opinion, they have to trade up instead of settling for a Matt Corral out of Ole Miss or Sam Howell out of North Carolina. Because at the end of the day if the player falls to pick 20, chances are
they just aren’t that good.
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