Is Paul Skenes Entering a “Sophomore Slump?”

In the National Football League, there is a term sometimes slapped on second year players called the “Sophomore Jinx.” This happens when a player has a solid or tremendous rookie season then comes out for his second year in the pros and falls flat or underperforms from the results of a season before.

Could this be the case for Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes? After losing to the Cleveland Guardians 3-0 on April 19, Skenes suffered his second loss in his first five starts of the 2025 campaign. This was supposed to be a season where Skenes was going to toss in some “new” pitches he had been working on in the 2024 post season and in spring training.

In comparing his first five games as a rookie last year to his first five this season, there’s not a whole lot of difference. However, Skenes would have such a fine season in 2024 that he garnered the Rookie of the Year honors. In 2024, Skenes did not get his first pro start until May 11 when the Bucs won a slugfest with the Chicago Cubs 10-9 and Skenes did not factor in the decision. He did pitch four solid innings striking out seven but also surrendered six hits and a home run. 

This season through five starts Skenes is 2-2 and April 19th was “Paul Skenes bobblehead day.” Perhaps he was jinxed by that honor as the Pirates ran out of bobbleheads to hand out to the 37,713 fans in attendance at PNC Park. Every fan was supposed to get one of these collectibles, but the team ran out and has promised to deliver a bobblehead to any fan that was at the game and did not get the gift.

Skenes’ latest loss was in front of that packed house at home, just 1,034 short of a complete sell out. While fans who received the bobblehead may have gone home happy with the freebie, they certainly could not have been pleased with yet another Pirates loss and their ace pitcher getting touched for two earned runs in the seven innings he pitched but worse was he only struck out four batters and gave up a four-base dinger in the process.

In his first five starts of 2024, Paul Skenes threw 27 innings with an E.R.A. of 2.99. He gave up 21 hits and four home runs while striking out 38 with only six walks. Nine runs were scored on him all earned. However, his record after five games was 3-0. He would not lose a game from May 11 until he was handed a loss at home to the St. Louis Cardinals on July 23 as his record became 6-1. He would finish the season 11-3.

Now in 2025 thus far, Skenes has 31 1/3 innings of work giving up the same 21 hits but has yielded 12 runs while on the mound with 10 being earned. He has walked four batters while whiffing 30. His E.R.A. has dropped a bit to 2.87. Only one batter has taken him out of the park. 

In his first five starts of 2024 where the Pirates won four of those five, Pittsburgh’s offense scored 39 runs or an average of 7.8 per game. Their opponents scored 27 over two runs less per game than the Buccos. In 2025 through Paul Skenes’ first five starts, Pittsburgh has scored 21 runs to the other team’s 18 but the Bucs are 2-3 in their ace’s first five starts of the season.

So, what does it all mean? After a stretch of 20 consecutive losing seasons from 1993 to 2012, there was that short three-year stint of playoff appearances led by Andrew McCutchen in 2013, 2014, and 2015 and since then only one season above .500 in 2018. Currently the Pirates are on a six straight season slide finishing under .500. It appears that the string won’t be broken this season.

Pirates faithful have been chanting “Sell the team” directed at owner Bob Nutting. There are even billboards in Pittsburgh stating the same. Skenes and his teammates have tried to downplay the whole discussion on this instead praising the fans. You can’t blame Pirates diehards. They are tired of losing. In town they have a Steelers team that can’t get past the first round of the playoffs. The Penguins for the second straight season have missed the playoffs entirely. The Bucs haven’t been to the playoffs since 2015 and last won a playoff game two seasons before.