Note to Steelers: Run the Damn Ball

After a very disappointing Week 1 loss, Steelers twitter has been a melting pot of conspiracy theories about a Kenny Pickett concussion and incredible overreactions. Some have even gone so far as to make moves to “save the season”. Man do I love Steelers fans. Storylines and threads have been rampant, but there has been one that has seemingly slipped through the cracks.

What most Steelers fans have been zeroed in on is the performance of Kenny Pickett and the offense which is not surprising, although maybe unfounded. Kenny did play very poorly, but not sure why that is surprising to Steelers fans, and not sure why it has led to the prediction of Kenny as a flop in the NFL. 

Kenny did well in the preseason but the Steelers faced neither the talent nor the scheme at the level of the 49ers defense. Facing the top defense in the NFL last year, for the first game of the season after playing backup defenses running base coverages, was the perfect storm for Kenny to play badly.

He did look rattled, and he did make some very poor throws but that shouldn’t have surprised anyone from a QB making his 13th start in the NFL against a team the caliber of the 49ers. Maybe this is the result of our generation of Steelers fans never dealing with a young quarterback, but they have bad games against good teams. I feel like that should be obvious, but I guess it has to be said. I guess that is what happens when you have been spoiled by Big Ben.

It is important to keep in mind that Pickett was 7-2 with 5 TDs and 1 interception in his last 9 starts. The game on Sunday shouldn’t erase those efforts. While Kenny looked as much like a young QB since his first game, there are some tangible reasons, that aren’t him simply being a bust. One of which being, the Steelers simply threw the ball too much. 

The Steelers threw the football 46 times on Sunday. Since Kenny Pickett has entered the league when he throws the ball 30 or more times, the Steelers are 3-8. In games where he throws less than 30? The Steelers are 5-0, those teams being the Falcons, Panthers, Raiders, Ravens, and Browns. And while all of those teams are playoff contenders, there is a clear trend. When Kenny throws the ball a lot, the Steelers don’t win.

Obviously there is more context to those stats like the health of the teams they played, their own health, schemes they played, whether TJ Watt was playing etc. Kenny throwing less does not always equate to wins, and it isn’t the only thing that equates to wins, but it certainly contributes to wins. The NFL is certainly a passing league, but it has to become one exclusively so. Of the top 10 teams that led the NFL in rushing yards last year, 6 of them were playoff teams. The 49ers and Eagles both made it to the NFC championship with the Eagles being in the Super Bowl. 

Now, in looking at stats over the past 13 starts of Kenny’s short career that doesn’t seem to be the same correlation to rushing attempts or even rushing yards to games won. But they ranked in the bottom 15 teams when it came to rushing yards and rushing attempts. When it comes to last Sunday, the Steelers only ran the ball 9 times.

How 9 rushing attempts has gone undiscussed and unnoticed is beyond me. Najee had six carries for 31 yards and Jaylen Warren had 3 carries for 6 yards. The Steelers run game has been an issue for over three years, and suddenly that is getting overshadowed by the 2nd year quarterback struggling in his 13th start is a bit baffling.

Najee actually had an impressive 24 yard run in the third quarter, but really wasn’t given very many opportunities, and neither was Jaylen Warren. One could argue that Canada abandoned the run game after he realized it wasn’t working, but the stats don’t support that argument. The Steelers ran the ball twice in both the 1st and 4th quarters and 3 times in the 2nd and 3rd quarters (one of these attempts being a Kenny Pickket scramble which I am omitting since not being a designed run).

There was never an attempt to establish any kind of run game. While the 49ers are elite when it comes to run defense, establishing at least a willingness to run the football may have changed something on Sunday. No matter what, I think the 49ers were better prepared and just an overall better football team in Week 1 than the Steelers and that's not all that surprising. Simply put, the Steelers were just going to lose that game, and we all fooled ourselves into thinking otherwise.

However, as the season progresses, the Steelers have to manage how many times they ask Kenny Pickett to do nothing but drop back pass the entire game. They have to establish a run game. They have to make the defense at least respect the possibility of a run, which makes pass blocking easier, which makes the passing game easier, and can at least present an opportunity for play action pass.

Run the damn ball.