Pittsburgh Steelers Preview – Look Out Kansas City Here We Come!

Merry Christmas to all! The best Christmas present to Steelers Nation would be a Steelers upset of the world champion Kansas City Chiefs on .Christmas Day. For Pittsburghers and others in attendance at Acrisure Stadium, the hope will be that Pittsburgh will get off the two game snide of losing to the Eagles and then the Ravens.

What arrives in the ‘Burgh is a Chiefs team that has lost just once this season and that to the high-flying Buffalo Bills. Kansas City is 14-1 and despite many close games, they refuse to lose. If the Chiefs leave Pittsburgh with a victory, they will own the top seed in the AFC meaning a first-round bye and a division playoff game on their turf.

For the Steelers they certainly do not want to lose a third straight game with a finale at home against Cincinnati looming on the horizon. No team wants to go to the first round of the playoffs on a long losing streak. Once again, the Steelers will be without George Pickens. Joey Porter Jr. is questionable with a knee injury. Justin Fields remains out with an injury. Not having Porter or Pickens has a major impact on both sides of the ball. 

Since 1970, the Steelers and Chiefs have played 37 times, and Pittsburgh has won 23 of those. It’s hard to believe Patrick Mahomes has already been in the league for eight seasons but since his rookie season in 2017 he has won multiple Super Bowls and developed into the greatest active quarterback. The last three games played between Pittsburgh and K.C. have gone to the Chiefs. 

Two seasons ago in Kansas City the Chiefs trounced the Steelers 42-21. That game was a wild card playoff. On that day Mahomes completed 30 of 39 passes for 404 yards and threw five touchdown passes. He also had a 23-yard run with the ball. A season earlier, Kansas City walloped the Steelers 36-10 again in their stadium. The current GOAT at quarterback didn’t finish with as many yards as he did in the 2022 game, but he did manage 258 in this one with three touchdown passes and a 50-yard strike. 

Two games in back-to-back seasons saw Patrick Mahomes outperform Ben Roethlisberger in a big way. You must go back to Mahomes’ sophomore season for the last meeting between these two teams prior to 2021. In just the second game of the 2018 season the Chiefs won a close game but high scoring with a final of 42-37. What can you say about the young Patrick Mahomes in this one? He just did what he does. 326 yards passing, 23 of 28, six touchdown passes and sacked just once. 

In that 2018 game on September 16, “Big Ben” Roethlisberger tried to go to-to-toe with Mahomes as the Steelers quarterback finished with 452 yards passing, threw the ball 60 times connecting on 39 of them and was also sacked just once while throwing for three touchdowns. 

The last time the Steelers defeated the Kansas City Chiefs came in the 2016 season when Pittsburgh won twice that year. First on the road in October, winning 43-14 and then in the playoffs in January during divisional playoffs as the Steelers won at home 18-16. Alex Smith was the quarterback for the Chiefs as Mahomes waited in the wings.

Early in the series between these two teams, from November 12, 1972, to September 6, 1981, the Steelers owned the Chiefs with seven straight victories. The current streak of three straight losses to Kansas City is their longest winning streak in the history of this matchup. In 1970 and 1971 when the teams first met, Pittsburgh lost both games. Three games were playoff games, and the Chiefs won two of those. 

Now we are at Christmas Day 2024 and there are two NFL games on the schedule. The Steelers are already in the playoffs, and we know they will be playing in the opening round. Whether that is as AFC North champions or as a wild card team, that we will know over the course of the next two weeks. 

Offense vs. Offense

The word on Kansas City’s offensive line is that they are not playing as well this season compared to year’s past. In fact, Patrick Mahomes has been sacked 36 times this season, the most of his career and there are still two games to play. His previous high total was 28 in 2021. He is also far from his highest passing total for one campaign, which was 5,250 in 2022. This season he is currently at 3,608 which would be his lowest for his career not counting his rookie season when he was only in one game. His previous low was 4,031 in 2019 so unless he throws for 423 yards in the next two games, this will be his career low.

As a team, the Chiefs are 15th in the NFL with average rushing yards per game with a mark of just 112.9. The Steelers are at 126.0 but the last few games have had bad outings. Kansas City is 12 in passing where the Steelers are further down at 25th, near the bottom with a per game average of only 198.9. Even with Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs average just 225.9.

Don’t let the numbers fool you. Patrick Mahomes and his offense are always dangerous. With Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, former Steelers JuJu Smith-Schuster and now DeAndre Hopkins the Chiefs can strike at any moment. For the Steelers, I believe this is a breaking point for Russell Wilson. He absolutely must have a strong showing or Mike Tomlin might consider going back to Justin Fields if he can get healthy. 

If Fields remains sidelined, then Tomlin has no choice but to keep Wilson behind center. Pittsburgh must also get their running game going.

Defense vs. Defense

The Steelers have to take advantage of Kansas City’s weakened o-line. Blitz, blitz, and blitz again. Be like killer bees and sting Mahomes and company as much as possible. I believe that is the key and T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith will have to have huge games as will Nick Herbig and Payton Wilson. Against the pass the Chiefs rank 17th in the NFL. The Steelers are 20th. Defending the run Kansas City is high up on the list in third (yielding only 91.4 yards per game) and Pittsburgh is 8th (102.7). 

I think Pittsburgh better have a great offensive game plan prepared for the Chiefs’ defense and execute it to perfection. For the Steelers’ defense they as well will have to have a plan for Mahomes and Kelce. With Mahomes having suffered a minor ankle injury pressure on him will be key.

Intangibles

A home game for the Steelers helps. With something to prove that helps too. But we are facing Patrick Mahomes who makes things happen even when he is dinged up. It all comes down to how the Steelers defense can match up against Mahomes and Kelce and how Russell Wilson performs once again with George Pickens.



Prediction

As much as I want the Steelers to win, I don’t like their chances. The Chiefs just continue to win no matter what. My brain says Chiefs my gut is feeling a little of an upset.

Chiefs 31 Steelers 24

I sure hope I’m dead wrong.