Projecting the Pirates Starting Rotation

Story by Yinzer Crazy Pirates' Contributor Baron Dionis

After another 100 loss season, the Pirates entered the off-season with a desperate need of pitching. The Pirates took charge in improving the rotation after adding multiple new arms such as Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez. Both signed to one year contracts for the 2023 season. With these transactions made up to date, what does the starting rotation look like for opening day?

Starting Rotation

1. Mitch Keller - To start off, Mitch Keller appears to be our ace going into Opening Day. After a solid 2022 season, Keller finished going 5-12 with a 3.91 ERA and 138 strikeouts. The biggest stat that improved in 2022 was the BB%. In 2021 he had a 10.4 BB% and in 2022 it dropped to 8.7%. He also had more strikeouts, 20.1%, than in 2021, 19.6%. We would like to see the 1.39 WHIP go down this year, but his 3.88 FIP was impressive. I believe that Keller is turning into what the Pirates wanted from being the #1 prospect for the Pirates in 2019.
2. Rich Hill - Rich Hill signed a one year contract with the Pirates worth $8 million, a few weeks ago. Hill immediately is second in the rotation and is in fact turning 43 before the season. In 2022, Hill went 8-7 with a 4.27 ERA and 109 strikeouts. Hill had a very impressive 7.0 BB% which is the third best of his career. He also put up a 1.30 WHIP in 124.1 innings along with a 3.92 FIP. Hill is known for his incredible curveball and looks to have a solid year for the Pirates.
3. Roansy Contreras - Roansy Contreras had a very good rookie season last year, earning him the third spot in the rotation. Contreras was one of the players we got back in the Jameson Taillon trade with the Yankees. In 2022, Contreras went 5-5 with a 3.79 ERA and 86 strikeouts. He only threw 95 innings due to the Pirates wanting to limit his pitches. They shut him down for a few weeks around the all-star break. Despite only appearing in 21 games, he posted a 1.27 WHIP and a 4.38 FIP. Contreras looks to bring down the 9.6 BB% in 2023. Contreras has a lot of potential to be a top arm in the league and he is only 23.
4. Johan Oviedo - Johan Oviedo was acquired at the trade deadline in the Jose Quintana trade. In the short span with the Pirates, he did very well. In 2022, with both the Cardinals and Pirates, Oviedo went 4-3 with a 3.21 ERA and had 54 strikeouts. Oviedo split time as a starter and in the bullpen, but the Pirates envision him as a starter moving forward. In 56 innings of work, he had a 3.74 FIP and a 1.28 WHIP. Oviedo showed a lot of good things with the Pirates and hopefully his success continues in 2023.
5. Vince Velasquez -  Vince Velasquez was signed to a one year deal for the 2023 season after spending 2022 with the Chicago White Sox. Velasquez had a decent season last year where he went 3-3 with a 4.78 ERA and had 69 strikeouts. He also appeared in 27 games last season and nine of them were starts. In 75.1 innings of work, Velasquez posted a 4.25 FIP and a 1.23 WHIP.  Ben Cherington sees Velasquez as a starter for the Pirates this year, but the spot is not guaranteed with JT Brubaker still battling for a spot in the rotation.

Overall the Pirates have a solid rotation coming into the 2023 season. Mitch Keller looks to build off a great 2022, Roansy Contreras is going into his second full MLB season, Johan Oviedo will try to build off his sold 2022, and the one year signees, Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez, will try to help mentor our young arms and eat innings until Quinn Priester and Mike Burrows are ready to join the Pirates rotation.