Steelers - Bengals Preview & Prediction

Story by Yinzer Crazy Contributor Adam Davidson. Follow him on Twitter @Adam_J_Davidson

Few quarterbacks in the NFL have a right to be as confident as the Bengals Joe Burrow. Since throwing four interceptions in week one in an overtime loss to the Steelers, the Bengals and their signal caller have started to put it all together, standing with a record of 5-4 midway through the season. Meanwhile, the Steelers haven’t lived up to the promise of their triumphant win in Cincinnati, faltering amid the transition to a rookie quarterback and staring straight into the abyss of Mike Tomlin’s first ever losing season.

Confidence is all relative, however. While the likes of Joe Burrow ooze confidence regardless of their standing, the Steelers are more or less cautiously optimistic, knowing there’s still time to gain ground in the AFC North.

At home this Sunday, after being flexed out of the coveted Sunday night spot, the Steelers have a chance to sustain their slim playoff hopes and bring the young rival quarterback down to earth, albeit for a moment.

“I’m just gonna be smarter with the ball,” Joe Burrow remarked during a meeting with Cincinnati media on Wednesday. “I’m not gonna throw four interceptions.”

That very quote ought to provide some fuel to the competitive fire for the Steelers’ defense, especially with Minkah Fitzpatrick aiming to return to the lineup following an appendectomy (provided he’s cleared by team doctors, of course). After a game in which the Steelers defense snagged two interceptions minus their all-pro safety, the Steelers are hoping they can prove the Bengals’ QB right. Maybe they can get their hands on five interceptions instead.

While establishing such a lofty goal may be a fool’s errand, there’s reason to be optimistic versus this Bengals team in their second matchup of the regular season. For one, Ja’Marr Chase will likely be out of the lineup for Cincinnati with an injured hip, leaving Burrow without his biggest playmaker for the third consecutive game.

Since his emergence as a rookie in 2021, Chase has left the Steelers’ D searching for ways to contain the former LSU Tiger. In three contests, Chase has amassed three touchdowns including a would-be game-winner at the end of regulation in their week one matchup. If not for the omnipresent Minkah Fitzpatrick swooping in to block the point-after attempt, the reigning AFC Champs would have opened their season with a win, drastically altering the complexion of both teams’ seasons.

That classic week one battle provides the backdrop for this Sunday, and will no doubt provide fodder for highlight-reel clips between the in-game action of the broadcast. From Minkah Fitzpatrick making his presence felt on both defense and special teams, to TJ Watt staking his claim to a second consecutive Defensive Player of the Year award prior to tearing his pec, we witnessed in week one every bit of what this rivalry can be. Throw Kenny Pickett into the mix, and we can glimpse the bigger picture of Steelers-Bengals games going forward, even if Pickett is still a work-in-progress.

While the rookie made significant strides in protecting the football last week versus New Orleans, Pickett is still taking too many sacks and not taking what the defense gives him, leaving him with a -7 touchdown-to-turnover differential. It’s a stat that might grow even larger if he tries to do too much against the Cincinnati defense, their aggressive front seven, and a ball-hawking secondary.

For all the criticism Mitch Trubisky faced early in the Steelers’ season, he should have been applauded and recognized more for protecting the football, especially in week one. While nothing flashy, Pickett ought to study Trubisky’s game tape if the Steelers are to walk away with a victory on Sunday. In other words, follow the veteran’s example: take what the defense gives you and allow your playmakers to make the necessary plays. All those weeks ago, Pat Freiermuth made Bengals’ linebackers pay off play-action passes, leaving Diontae Johnson to shine on acrobatic sideline grabs to set up the game-winning field goal in overtime. And this is to say nothing of the ground game that is now thankfully finding its footing after a miserable start to the year.

Against the Saints, the Steelers took advantage of a healthy Najee Harris and exploited an aggressive front seven by pulling guards and double-teaming defenders to spring Najee into the open field. This allowed more opportunities for Jaylen Warren in the passing game, who caught a pass in the flat to pick up crucial yards late in the game. A gameplan featuring a heavy dose of running plays ought to slow down the menacing duo of Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, who are both off to slow starts midway through the season and are looking to feast on an inexperienced quarterback. If Hendrickson and Hubbard can be neutralized, the main Bengal to watch out for would be DJ Reader, a massive run-stuffing tackle who returns to the lineup for Cincinnati following a knee injury.

On the opposing sideline, the Bengals’ Joe Mixon has been scoring touchdowns at an alarming rate in recent weeks, picking up five of them just two weeks ago versus Carolina. Now, coming off a bye week, the Bengals and Mixon are looking to pick up where they left off, and may very well focus on the running game with a quarterback who’s anxious to shake off the rust and undo his week one performance.

While the Steelers’ defense often struggles against top-tier rushing attacks, Cam Heyward, TJ Watt and company showcased amazing discipline last week by limiting Alvin Kamara and the Saints to just 29 yards through sixty minutes. To top it all off, Devin Bush has transformed the narrative on him heading into a big contract year, becoming a sure-tackler and stout run defender, and posting just one missed tackle all year according to PFF. With Myles Jack returning to take over for the impressive Robert Spillane, the Steelers will be at full-health and running full speed ahead to take on the challenge.

All year, it’s been a game of “next man up.” From Trubisky to Pickett, Watt to Reed and Fitzpatrick to Kazee, the Steelers altogether have done an admirable job, which sounds absurd given their record on the year. But given their anemic start and the internal strife apparent between coaches, coordinators and players, the Steelers have at least embraced the philosophy of their head coach: “next man up.”

Now, in week eleven, the drama has subsided and the kinks are finally being worked out. If TJ Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and even rookie DeMarvin Leal can return to the fold while the likes of Kenny Pickett and Alex Highsmith hit their stride, then the Steelers’ chances cannot be discounted. Especially at home, and especially if every man believes in the standard. After all, as Tomlin says, it is the standard.

Prediction: Steelers 28, Bengals 24