Steelers - Bills Preview & Predictions

Steelers Contributors Adam Davidson & Noah Nichols. Follow them on Twitter @Adam_J_Davidson & _NoahNichols

Adam’s Take:

For Steelers and Steelers fans alike, the three weeks heading into week four with the New York Jets was a long, painful experience. Perhaps no one was feeling that pain more than Kenny Pickett.

Throughout those three weeks, the Steelers’ first-round pick was saddled on the sidelines, firmly behind Mitch Trubisky on the depth chart despite the offense struggling to score points. After an entire year of being the “big man on campus” at Pitt and hearing that he was the NFL Draft’s most pro-ready prospect, Pickett was the one holding the clipboard.

When Number 8 was finally called upon, the roar from the Acrisure faithful wasn’t as much a gleeful celebration as it was a collective utterance of “about time, Tomlin.”

The frustration in Pittsburgh is resounding, even more so after a loss. That isn’t to say there wasn’t progress made with Pickett under center.

Though he threw three interceptions against two rushing scores, few could fault Pickett for taking the much-needed shots downfield. After all, he trusts his receivers to make plays. Even better, he trusts himself. Now heading into Buffalo, Pickett faces an elite defense and an offense on the other side whose quarterback is the odds-on favorite to win league MVP.

Josh Allen, at one time rumored to be a potential Steeler before rocketing up draft boards in 2018, possesses all the necessary qualities of a modern NFL quarterback. Allen is as comfortable running as he is throwing dimes downfield, often hurdling defenders when he’s not patting the ball in the pocket before finding his receivers Stefon Diggs or Gabriel Davis. At this stage of his career, Allen is already among the biggest names and faces in the league, having as many high-profile contests under his belt as Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. Last year’s AFC Divisional Round contest in Kansas City, an instant classic featuring five lead changes in the final minutes, more or less resembled a modern-day Brady-Manning affair.

In the big picture of NFL football, the Steelers would’ve been fooling themselves if they ever thought starting Trubisky (Allen’s backup last year) in Buffalo would amount to more than a lopsided blowout. After seeing the results over three-and-a-half games, the coaching staff has made the obvious decision to keep up with the arms race for talented quarterbacks in the AFC, and got a sudden jumpstart on their franchise’s future.

Of course, this Sunday afternoon’s game comes down to more than who’s taking the snaps at quarterback, especially with big names featured on both sides of the ball.

On defense, the Buffalo Bills have assembled the league’s best pass defense through four games, despite safety Micah Hyde and corner Tre’davious White being on IR. The Bills are a cohesive unit, and with the ageless Von Miller coming off the edge, Kenny Pickett’s ability to process what’s in front of him will be put to the test. Odds are that Buffalo will occasionally employ a QB spy on Pickett - either Matt Milano or Tremaine Edmunds - and sit back in zone coverage, forcing Picket to dissect and pick apart the Bills’ defense. This defensive scheme could spell disaster for Pickett if the game is put in his hands earlier than expected. However, a running game is often a young quarterback’s best friend, and the rookie would benefit from a great game by one Najee Harris.

Harris and the Steelers maulers on the offensive line enjoyed one of their best game of last season on the road in Buffalo in their season opener. And though the interior of the line has changed since then - swap Mason Cole for Kendrick Green and James Daniels for Trai Turner - the Steelers have a unit they should feel comfortable entrusting with a run-heavy gameplan. But it doesn’t matter if you don’t have a talented back to carry the workload.

Still longing for his breakout game this season, Najee will be putting the game on his shoulders after weeks of being stymied at or near the line of scrimmage and being beset with an injured ankle. Behind him, Jaylen Warren will be an asset spelling Harris and providing valuable pass protection on passing downs. At five-foot-eight, Warren may be assigned the six-foot-three Von Miller or breakout star pass rusher Greg Rousseau on blitz pickup. Warren better hope his advantage in leverage wins out.

Warren is truly the epitome of an underdog in the NFL, an undrafted free agent out of Oklahoma State who has become the unquestioned backup to Najee in his rookie year. But don’t mention the term “underdog” to Von Miller.

In a recent clip that has gone viral in NFL circles, Miller chastises Pickett for proclaiming the Steelers “underdogs” heading into Buffalo. But the truth is, without TJ Watt and a rookie quarterback still earning the trust of his team, the Steelers are about as big an underdog as you can get.

If the Steelers have any hope of beating the Bills, it will have to come by way of leaning on someone other than Minkah Fitzpatrick and Chris Boswell to score points. As pathetic as it sounds, both players have put up about as many points as any member of the unreliable Steelers offense. They need someone else to step up, take the reins and embrace the challenge thrown out by Buffalo and the Bills Mafia.

Noah’s Take:

This game is going to be a doozy. Either because the Steelers will keep it close, (and potentially, win) or the Steelers will get blown out by the Bills. Most people are predicting the latter to happen, and rightfully so. The Steelers have not been playing at the level we, or even themselves, are accustomed to seeing. 

Does that change Sunday? Perhaps. What I do know is that change occurred last Sunday, at halftime when the Steelers went to Kenny Pickett and promptly took the lead from the Jets. I do know Kenny Pickett is going into this game prepared to embrace the pressure and hostile environment that will face him, like it does for all rookie quarterbacks.

I do know the Steelers offense moved with a spark last Sunday, with swagger. Pickett himself remarked similarly. "I just play with an edge," Pickett said. "That's something that I wanted to bring to the table…I want that to rub off on everybody. I want us to have an attitude when it's out there on the field."

Pickett, and the Steelers, will have all the chances they can get on Sunday to prove they play with an edge. And they will need to, for the Steelers defense, already without TJ Watt, have had an extensive injury report this week, including the likes of Cam Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Terrell Edmunds, Cam Sutton, and Levi Wallace - essentially their entire secondary. 

Not to be outdone, the Bills have been struck by the same injury bug, and at the time of this writing, have already ruled out Jordan Poyer (who has been playing like an All-Pro), Dawson Knox, Jake Kumerow, Jamison Crowder, and Christian Benford (a starting cornerback). They already are without stars Micah Hyde and Tre White as well. 

It seems that both teams wil be playing with banged-up secondaries. The Steelers are more fortunate on the offensive side of the ball, as no real injuries have shown up this week, aside from a hip that limited Diontae Johnson in practice yesterday and is not expected to hold him out from Sunday. 

That means the Bills will need Josh Allen to play hero ball, and he will step up to the plate as often as the Bills call his name. The Steelers cannot expect a defense which has been largely unreliable all year to hold back Allen or Stefon Diggs.

It will be up to Kenny Pickett to answer Allen’s challenge, to play hero ball in tandem. In his first NFL start, Pickett will have to be at his best if the Steelers are to win. That means Pickett will need to avoid leaving the pocket unless necessary, take shots to George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, and avoid turning the ball over. 

Pickett can do it, and the Bills banged up secondary unit should provide Pickett all the opportunity he could ask for. It’s now or never for Pickett. 

Noah’s Prediction: 

The Steelers will need to attack the Bill’s lack of experience and depth in the secondary to win this game, as the Bills will do the same to them with a lethal connection between Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. While all week I believed the Steelers had no chance of winning on Sunday, the Bills injuries are taking their toll on this game, and my opinion of who wins. 

I’m going to predict that the Steelers win in Kenny Pickett’s first NFL start, beating the Bills 27-24, in a game that will set the table for Kenny Pickett’s career. I think the Steelers will simply be able to match a very talented receiving room against a weakened secondary, and I know Pickett won’t hesitate to trust his guys to make plays. The legend of KP8 starts Sunday.

Adam’s Prediction:

As much as I want to see the Steelers embark on a fairytale journey to the playoffs this season - all starting with a huge upset in Buffalo - I can’t say with any conviction that’s going to happen. However, there will be a measure of positivity for the team coming out of Buffalo.

The biggest question the Steelers face going into hostile territory this Sunday is whether or not they have their quarterback for the future. Thankfully, they’ll have their answer before stepping onto the flight back home. As for whether the team will turn things around and play up to their potential, that is yet to be determined. But the tangible spark provided by their quarterback will be enough to sustain some hope in Pittsburgh.

I see the Steelers losing by the skin of their teeth, putting up 24 points to the Bills’ 28.