Steelers - Buccaneers Game Predictions and Previews

Story by Yinzer Crazy Featured Steelers Contributor Adam Davidson. Follow him on Twitter @Adam_J_Davidson

Evaluating Kenny Pickett’s first career start in Buffalo is an exercise in futility, full of caveats and addendums for every mark of praise. Yeah, he threw for over 300 yards and posted a completion percentage well over 60 percent. Yeah, his only interception was made on a meaningless throw before the end of the first half. But, as has become customary for this Steelers offense, Kenny and crew could not put up enough points to keep Sunday’s game in Buffalo a respectable matchup. Sure, statistically speaking, Kenny did great for his first NFL start despite not reaching the endzone. But saying that feels like saying you aced your math test while forgetting the answer to two plus two.

The Steelers drafted Pickett under the auspices that he’d continually lead the franchise well into the months of January and February. If they hope for that dream to become a reality, the Steelers must start playing up to their lofty standards this Sunday. Unfortunately for the team, they’re mired in one of the toughest stretches of the 2022 season, facing playoff-caliber teams most every week. And it just so happens that the man on the opposing sideline at Acrisure this Sunday knows a thing or two about playoff football himself.

Tom Brady has defined the quarterback position for two decades, becoming a one-man dynasty along the way and winning more Super Bowls than the Steelers have in their trophy case. Brady knows very well this season may be his last, especially after flirting with retirement this past offseason. Now, with retirement fully in sight, Brady has been known to offer words of encouragement to young, upcoming quarterbacks from Patrick Mahomes to Josh Allen once the final whistle blows. One might say it’s his desire to leave the league in a better place than where he found it. Whatever the case, Kenny Pickett should refrain from being star-struck. Brady’s human after all, even if the officials refuse to believe it.

Versus Atlanta this past Sunday, Brady appeared to be sacked by the Falcon’s Grady Jarrett in the final minutes, a play that would’ve spelled defeat for most teams. But as has been proven time and time again, Brady is not your average quarterback. The GOAT’s treatment by officials was called into question yet again upon the subsequent “roughing the passer” penalty, which extended Tampa Bay’s drive and prevented a late change of position.

Controversy aside, there was more to that game and more to this upcoming game than just the easy headline involving Brady. While most stories will be written based off the quarterback play, the biggest story this Sunday will be authored by the defenses and which defense can generate the most pressure. For the Buccaneers, it’s about rattling the unshakable rookie Kenny Pickett under defensive mastermind and head coach Todd Bowles. For the Steelers, it’s about generating pressure with as few blitzes as possible, which, without TJ Watt, will be a tall order. If anything’s become apparent to the Steelers over Brady’s tenure, it’s that Tom cannot be given time in the pocket to read the defense and find his receivers downfield, especially with a wide receiver corps as talented as any he had in New England.

From the physically-imposing Mike Evans to Chris Godwin, the Buccaneers receivers prove that it’s not just their Hall of Fame quarterback who makes them look good. It’s a matter of pure talent, speed, and being willing to make the tough catches. And despite being beset by injuries and other nagging ailments over their tenure with Brady, the likes of Evans and Godwin have continually fought to take the field with their quarterback, especially considering the latter has battled hamstring and hip/knee issues all season.

However, Godwin has proven to be the quintessential complement to the number-one wideout Evans. Together, the two are looking to terrorize a depleted and porous Steelers secondary that posted five names to their injury report both on Wednesday and Thursday; their top three cornerbacks as well as their starting safeties Minkah Fitzpatrick and Terrell Edmunds. All the more reason to bring pressure, especially up the middle of the Buccaneers offensive line. Ever since it was exploited to great effect in Super Bowl 42 against the Giants, teams have found success rushing up the middle to put a hit on Brady and disrupt his passes. Perhaps the greatest play the Steelers ever made on Brady - Joe Haden’s famous 4th-quarter pick against New England in 2018 - came off a four-man rush with pressure leaking through the A and B gaps.

Granted, the Steelers find themselves without Haden, who remains a free agent after rejecting offers from the Rams over the offseason. And Cam Heyward, who helped to generate that pressure four years ago, is now much older and less agile. The Steelers must now count on their emerging defensive playmakers - DeMarvin Leal and Chris Wormley, for instance - to force Brady out of his comfort zone and make the errant throw if Larry Ogunjobi (back) can’t suit up. If the Steelers can win the turnover battle, while containing the steady rushing attack of Leonard Fournette, the Steelers will have a chance given how few mistakes Pickett has made this far on offense. Despite throwing four interceptions thus far, only one of those throws, a pass to Pat Freiermuth against the Jets, has come back to bite the Steelers. And even in saying that, the pass should’ve been caught for a completion.

Rarely do you see a rookie quarterback with the poise, accuracy and leadership qualities to continue fighting even when down five scores in Buffalo, or after throwing multiple picks at home versus the Jets. But that’s just what Pickett has done so far in the brief moments we’ve glimpsed from his NFL career. Doing so, he’s won the respect of veteran teammates such as Cam Heyward, and the admiration of fellow rookie Jaylen Warren.

“He’s been a great leader,” Warren said via Steelers Live. “He makes it clear what he wants, the play, he’ll be in the huddle being very transparent of what he wants each person to do. As a person in that huddle, you can look at that and respect that, and it makes you want to do your job two times harder.”

Pickett will be taking the field looking for his first win, which would be the Steelers first since upsetting the Bengals in week one. He and the majority of the Pittsburgh locker room will be playing with much to prove, including fellow rookie George Pickens, who has developed a solid connection with his quarterback. Together, the two are looking for their first passing and receiving touchdowns in the NFL after an offseason when much more was expected from the two. As it stands, Tampa Bay has a red zone defense well towards the bottom of the league, even after a stellar week one performance against Dallas and Dak Prescott. It may be the remedy for a Steelers offense that showed promise early in Buffalo, but faltered within the opposition’s twenty-yard-line.

Tampa’s defense, featuring Antoine Winfield Jr and the duo of Devin White and the ageless Lavonte David at linebacker, will find itself in a fight against a desperate offensive unit. The eleven men of the Steelers offense have been routinely challenged by Matt Canada’s predictable play calling, bad drops in the passing game, injuries, and some general bad luck thrown in for good measure. Together, with a full two week’s time of Kenny Pickett under center, the Steelers will outlast the Buccaneers in a close contest showcasing the most decorated veteran quarterback in the league versus its best rookie quarterback. It won’t be enough to fully extinguish the lingering doubt within Steeler Nation, but the win will be a great launching pad for the Steelers going forward.

Prediction: Steelers 20, Buccaneers 16