Story by Yinzer Crazy Featured Steelers Writer Adam Davidson. Follow him on Twitter @Adam_J_Davidson
At 3-7, it’s hard for the Steelers not to glance over their shoulder and assess the many paths and many doors this season, and seasons previous, could’ve gone through. A missed throw here, a missed draft pick there, and the Steelers may be closer to .500 in 2022 than facing their first losing season in almost two decades. But perhaps no “sliding door” is as full of implications as the one Mike Tomlin may have gone through a few short seasons ago.
According to Aditi Kinkhabwala and the NFL rumor mill, Tomlin was once close to a franchise-altering decision regarding his coaching future, one that might’ve landed him in the world of television broadcasting. It’s a decision that would’ve left the Steelers scrambling for an heir apparent and a new leader of their franchise. As it stands, Tomlin is here, sorting out the whys and hows of what will likely be his first losing season as head coach.
Regardless of records this season, this coming Monday night may feature the biggest disparity in head coaching resumes ever seen on a pro football field.
Coming from the world of television to become the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts, former Colts center Jeff Saturday has faced scrutiny for his sudden ascension up the head coaching ladder: a profession that until now few would have suspected he was suited for. Now one of just 32 NFL head coaches upon supplanting former head coach Frank Reich, Saturday is steering his team through massive turbulence, taking over for a team that had endured a slow start to the season and faced controversy regarding their quarterback position.
In the near term, no one decision Saturday made was as impactful - or as obvious - as naming former NFL MVP Matt Ryan his starting quarterback over second-year QB Sam Ehlinger, who took over towards the end of the Reich regime. The move gave the Colts an advantage over the Raiders in Jeff Saturday’s first NFL victory, and provided almost, but not quite enough of a boost to defeat the NFC’s current number-one seeded Eagles.
In an environment where every head coaching move is criticized and every decision analyzed ad nauseum by on-screen pundits, Saturday has so far proved the doubters wrong. Perhaps being head coach isn’t as hard as it sounds?
No matter what the circumstance, Mike Tomlin has no time for excuses, whether in regard to the performance of his offense or his decision to hand over the fate of the season to rookie Kenny Pickett. Simply put, the Steelers own their record. Despite the struggles the former Pitt Panther has faced in his young career, Tomlin and the Rooneys have the utmost patience in Pickett. The Steelers believe that the scars and losses sustained this year will only build character and much-needed experience for the future. It represents a stark difference in philosophies between franchises. The Rooneys are patient - sometimes to a fault - while other owners, including the Colts’ Jim Irsay, can be all too erratic.
On Monday Night, it will come down to which team responds best to the pressure, and the pressure goes beyond the evident gap in experience between opposing quarterbacks. As Pittsburgh stares down the barrel of elimination from playoff contention, the Steelers must band together and look for their first win on the road since week one in Cincinnati. That means rallying around Pickett, making more combative catches, and gaining more yards after the catch.
As a defense, the Colts are a top-ten unit in terms of yards allowed but towards the middle-of-the-pack in points surrendered, meaning opposing teams are making more of their drives count, especially in the red-zone. It also doesn’t help matters that their offensive teammates lead the league in giveaways. So far, the Colts’ offense leads the league in fumbles, and is tied with the Steelers QBs with ten total interceptions.
While still working out some kinks, the Colts’ defense is fortified by the likes of former NFL Defensive Player of the Year cornerback Stephon Gilmore and defensive end Yannick Ngakoue. It’s a group that ought to give Kenny Pickett a challenge on the field in Indianapolis, even with Pro Bowl linebacker Darius Leonard landing on IR two weeks ago. And as for receiving weapons such as Diontae Johnson, who has been near the top of the league in separation according to advanced metrics, it will be a matter of winning when matched up with Gilmore and keeping the competitive corner from coming away with the football in coverage.
Three years removed from stealing the DPOY award from TJ Watt in the eyes of Steelers fans, Gilmore will aim to make Kenny Pickett and Diontae Johnson pay in the passing game, which means offensive coordinator Matt Canada and a struggling offense must find ways to distribute the ball to other targets.
Opposite of Gilmore, five-foot-nine Kenny Moore II may find himself matched up at times with six-foot-three rookie George Pickens. After a game against Cincinnati that featured the Steelers’ first passing touchdown of over eight yards all year, Pickens figures to be a focal point against an aggressive Colts defense that will likely attempt to blitz Pickett and disrupt his rhythm in the passing game.
For the Steelers, it’s about playing disciplined football behind the impressive front featuring Heyward, Highsmith and Watt. Last week, the Steelers struggled to defend screen passes to Bengals’ running back Samaje Perine, and left wide receiver Tee Higgins too often in one-on-one coverage against Arthur Maulet. This week, after several days of scrutiny for his performance in year one as defensive coordinator, Teryl Austin must have his crew prepared for a Colts offense that, while struggling mightily all year, can surprise a Steelers’ defense making the trip to Lucas Oil Stadium. Few things can get an offense humming quite like the short passing game. And the Colts’ running game, featuring Jonathan Taylor, is the group’s most well-known commodity. When running behind star left guard Quenton Nelson, Taylor must be tracked down early and often to force long third downs, and prevent the Colts’ offense from getting on-schedule.
On the other sideline, the Steelers’ must prepare to administer their own heavy dose of running plays against the Colts, knowing that Najee Harris is finally hitting his stride as the unquestioned running back and leader on offense. Behind him, the Steelers may struggle to provide Harris a necessary break here and there, especially with rookie Jaylen Warren out and Benny Snell stepping in after assuming special teams duties most of the year. In addition, third-year man Anthony McFarland may see some action, knowing that he’s been running out of time to make an impression on the coaching staff.
In the end, the spotlight shining in Indianapolis Monday night can afford room to one, and only one, charismatic, TV-ready head coach. In a close game that will likely be decided by head coaching expertise, late-game management, and sideline pep talks to young playmakers, Mike Tomlin will prevail and prove that he’s the chosen coach of these Pittsburgh Steelers, for better or worse.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Colts 20
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