Steelers - Dolphins: Preview & Predictions

Story by Yinzer Crazy Featured Steelers Contributor Adam Davidson. Follow him on Twitter @Adam_J_Davidson

Maybe we’re expecting too much. Maybe Steeler Nation is too accustomed to epic storylines playing out on the football field. But Kenny Pickett’s first career start and win just didn’t feel as momentous as it should have. Despite the much-needed victory and the high-caliber performances across the board on offense and defense, the win over Tampa Bay didn’t have the same qualities as, say, winning your first career start in the middle of a hurricane.

In 2004, Ben Roethlisberger and company traveled down to hurricane-stricken Miami to face the Dolphins in a memorable matchup featuring four Steelers defensive turnovers and a classic Big Ben touchdown pass to Hines Ward thrown on the run. The win, Big Ben’s first, inspired more than just a nickname. It took a team on a wild ride toward AFC dominance and in the end, amounted to two Super Bowl victories over two decades.

Perhaps it’s just the football gods showing some good humor but on Sunday night, Kenny Pickett has a chance to return to the place where it all began for his predecessor and walk away with not just a win, but a complete win.

After practicing fully and taking first team reps all week, Pickett is the presumed starter going into Miami after landing in concussion protocol in the third quarter of last week’s game. In resuming his role as starting quarterback, Pickett has warded off the resurgent Mitch Trubisky who made his return under center against Tampa Bay. The former Chicago Bear impressed his teammates, made quick, decisive throws, and even showcased his running ability in picking up a key first down.

Against Tampa, Trubisky put together the better tape. His throws occurred in “crunch time,” with the clock winding down and the Steelers needing to cement a win. Naturally, there was some quarterback controversy manufactured by various media outlets, but riding with Pickett this time is the obvious choice. It makes for more than just another great story.

While the Steelers are an ascending team on Miami’s away sideline this Sunday night, the Dolphins at home find themselves struggling to keep their heads above water after an impressive 3-0 start to the year. After several seasons mired at the bottom of their division, the Dolphins aren’t used to a hot start, and now find themselves a rare home favorite against a team that usually has their number. Much of that is due to who’s at quarterback.

Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ franchise quarterback, is returning to the fold following two scary hits in back-to-back weeks that left him losing consciousness on the field in Cincinnati in week four. The question of whether the Dolphins and team physicians flouted concussion protocols led to the NFL amending the rule and now, after two weeks away from the game, Tua will be facing a Steelers defense hitting its stride.

After notching his first sack as a Steeler last week, outside linebacker Malik Reed bookends the league leader in sacks, Alex Highsmith. Along the interior, Cam Heyward and company are playing their best football of the year, stuffing running lanes and collapsing the pocket. Behind them, Devin Bush and Myles Jack have become a worthy tandem to complement the rest of the front seven and in the secondary, a young backfield is welcoming back former Dolphin Minkah Fitzpatrick at free safety. After missing multiple starters last week against Tampa, defensive coach Teryl Austin’s gameplan proved to be the difference maker. Whether they simplified their approach last week or not, the Steelers now have a winning formula on defense and ought to stick to it, especially with Tua returning to the field alongside some skilled playmakers.

All-Pro Tyreek Hill complements second-year standout receiver Jaylen Waddle in the passing game, giving the Dolphins aerial attack a much needed threat to warrant deep coverage. This leaves tight ends such as former Nittany Lion Mike Gesicki the space to work underneath, while a versatile backfield of Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds can stretch the field laterally and provide a quick outlet for check down passes. Needless to say, Teryl Austin and former Dolphins’ head coach Brian Flores have had a lot of concerning tape to study this week.

“I think any time you play a team with speed like that, you’re obviously aware of it but you can’t be scared of it,” Austin told reporters on Thursday. “You know what they’re good at and you try to take it away. We’re not gonna be able to cover them all.”

On paper, the Dolphins’ offense should run wild. The one lingering question for the Dolphins however is whether Tua will have the time - or be given the go-ahead - to throw deep. Long routes in the passing game require more time to throw in the pocket, and considering Tua’s startling concussion history as well as an injury to Terron Armstead that has left the offensive tackle limited in practice, the Dolphins might alter their gameplan to get the ball out quick. It remains to be seen whether this Dolphins unit can sustain drives off runs and short passes, and will have to count on the slippery Tyreek Hill to avoid tacklers and pick up yards after the catch.

While giving up the big play has been the Steelers’ Achilles’ heel all season, a lack of big plays on offense has been a worrisome development as well, considering the big vertical threats the Steelers have on offense. With Pickett getting more work in with George Pickens and Chase Claypool, one would assume the Steelers’ offense is due to get their yards in chunks. 

While stout against the run this year, Miami has surrendered the bulk of their yards through the air despite veteran ball-hawk Xavien Howard at cornerback and former Steeler Melvin Ingram bringing pressure off the edge. One year after sitting behind Highsmith on the depth chart, Ingram has flourished in the Dolphin’s system, having made plays earlier in the year during the team’s eye-opening 3-0 start. However, along with many of his teammates, Ingram’s production has fallen off a cliff. Certainly, Dolphin’s rookie head coach Mike McDaniel has had his work cut out for him in finding ways to inspire his team back to contention amidst injuries, controversies, and general poor play.

Both teams must put the noise aside, especially the Steelers. They’ve battled trade rumors and suggestions that they ought to sell off their high-priced talent, like Chase Claypool. And before getting a win at home versus Tampa, the Steelers were on pace for the number-one overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Now, the outlook’s a lot brighter as things trend upward for Tomlin’s team.

Momentum may not be the only thing that matters for NFL teams week to week, but it is often a hidden factor that leads to upsets when we really should’ve seen it coming. On the season, the Dolphins have been the better team. But the Steelers are finally getting their act together at the right time. Riding the momentum off a long-sought-after win, the Steelers will begin to finally stack victories on Sunday night in Miami.

Prediction: Steelers 28, Dolphins 21