Steelers - Falcons Preview & Predictions

Game Preview by Yinzer Crazy Featured Steelers Contributor Adam Davidson. Follow him on Twitter @Adam_J_Davidson

If you're a rookie quarterback on the road, on Monday Night with the whole football world watching, nerves can get the best of you. Even worse, the temptation to make a memorable play can get you into trouble.

So on the goalline with a chance to take the lead, what do you do? If you're Kenny Pickett, you hand the ball off. Especially if you get the right look from the opposing defense.

"I felt like they were really concerned with my legs and how I was doing that throughout the game, so I felt like if there was a zone read… we had a pretty good play if Benny got to the left side, and it worked well."

Those are the words from Kenny Pickett following his performance Monday night versus the Indianapolis Colts, showing poise and mental acuity well beyond his years.

But for Kenny Pickett, it's damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't. Basically, a 24-year-old rookie ought to be calling the right plays in those situations. And if said 24-year-old-rookie doesn't? Well, he’d better learn quick.

Clearly, Kenny Pickett still has his detractors in the NFL. They range from the fan on online message boards to the fan in the stadium hanging his head after every missed throw. Thankfully, the missed throws are becoming less and less common. And thankfully for Kenny Pickett, he's starting to have other teams starting to regret not drafting him.

At 5-7, under the leadership of former Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the Atlanta Falcons are currently mingling in still waters among the rest of the NFC South. In time, as the NFL regular season comes to a close, the still waters will become something more of a tempest, testing the will of every player until one - i.e. Tom Brady, most likely - stands above the rest. Frankly, it's a matter of who's game-tested enough to lead their franchise through turbulent waters, and the Falcons are fumbling in their search for a game-changing signal caller since Matt Ryan departed last year.

For now, the Falcons are settling for former Titans' quarterback Marcus Mariota under center with rookie Desmond Ridder waiting in the wings, leaving many to wonder how the franchise would be faring right now if they adhered to the consensus pick of NFL Mock Draft experts and nabbed Pickett in the first round instead.

While Pickett hasn't astounded in terms of statistics - his touchdown-to-interception ratio as a rookie  is still well in the range of Trent Dilfer and Akili Smith territory - he excels in terms of grit, leadership, and will to win. All elements the Atlanta Falcons could use in spades right now.

As an offensive unit, the Falcons do employ a strong rushing attack, currently ranking second in the league with almost 2,000 yards rushing behind the committee backfield of Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Algeier. Mariota has accounted for his fair share of rushing yards too, as the former number-two overall pick has been known to pick up crucial first downs with his legs. It's in this aspect of the upcoming game on Sunday that is feast or famine for Atlanta. While Mariota may be asked to tote the ball and keep the Steelers defense off-balance, he must also hold onto the football after totaling five fumbles so far on the year.

At wide receiver, the Atlanta Falcons have one of the best rookie receivers in the game in former USC Trojan Drake London, a physical specimen who has cooled down after a fast start to the year. Joining him is Olamide Zaccheaus, who leads the team in receiving yards and has grown into a steady presence on an offense that has favored London and star tight end Kyle Pitts in terms of sheer targets. But with Pitts out for the year and requiring knee surgery, the Falcons’ passing game must tweak its approach and redistribute the ball back to Zaccheaus and specifically London, who has amassed four receiving touchdowns on the year.

Regardless of who is fielded, the Steelers should be thankful they're facing one of the league's most turnover-prone QBs for the second straight week. Following Monday night’s performance against Matt Ryan which resulted in one interception and one fumble recovery, the Steelers’ defense is focused on rallying behind their young quarterback and setting him up with short fields for the possibility of converting turnovers to touchdowns, not just field goals.

Yet therein lies the conundrum for the Steelers offense. While Matthew Wright has corrected course over the past week, it's tantamount for the Steelers offense to capitalize on every possible scoring opportunity to afford their defense as much rest as possible, and to score touchdowns, not settle for field goals. TJ Watt and company cannot be counted on for the same performance they posted last week: coming onto the field off short rest and stalling enough drives to keep their offensive counterparts in the game.

The formula is simple enough and ought to be executed, especially against a defense that has struggled to bring the quarterback down. Defensive end Grady Jarrett currently leads the team with five sacks, while his closest competition, Lorenzo Carter, has just three-and-a-half. This lack of pass rush production has hurt Atlanta all season, culminating in the league’s worst pass defense. George Pickens, who’s returning to the state he played for in college, might just have a career-defining game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

However, if the Steelers offensive line plays down to the level of competition or suffers from continued miscommunication, a walk in the park can quickly turn into yet another close call for a Steelers team that hasn’t put together a convincing win in what seems like forever. Add to it the fact that Najee Harris is questionable going into Sunday, and the Steelers chances begin to appear grim.

Thankfully, Jaylen Warren is returning to a backfield as reinforcement to a unit that ran hard in Najee’s absence last Monday. Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland may have finally found their niche in this offense, at least for the time being. While Snell can be counted on for tough yardage and goal line situations, McFarland may be the scatback this offense has been searching for and may be utilized in key third down scenarios.

Beyond this analysis of offense and defense is the necessary evaluation of the Steelers’ kickoff and punt return game, which, despite their tendencies to allow long kickoff returns, remains a genuine “third phase of the game,” according to Mike Tomlin. All week long, Tomlin has espoused this belief, hoping his players will buy in as they are set to face off against the aforementioned Cordarrelle Patterson, who’s one of the best returners in the game. The return of special teams ace Miles Boykin to the Steelers’ fold ought to fortify a kick coverage team that has lapsed noticeably in his absence, and help keep Patterson from breaking a long runback.

In all three phases, the Steelers appear to be set for a convincing win. Their offense is finally clicking and their defense has gotten healthy at the right time. However, one splash play can turn any game into an all-out slugfest, with each team trading blows until one team inevitably wins the war of attrition.

This close to the end of the year would be a good time for the Steelers to stack victories, and I’m sure they’ll take them any way they can. With a rookie quarterback. On the road. Backs against the wall. Who would want it any other way?

Prediction: Steelers 24, Falcons 20