Steelers - Jets Preview and Prediction

Story by Yinzer Crazy Featured Steelers Writer Adam Davidson. Follow him on Twitter @Adam_J_Davidson

So-called premonition is overrated.

In the first three weeks of the NFL season, the Steelers have confounded prognosticators (i.e. me), coming away with an upset victory on the road versus the reigning AFC Champion Bengals week one and losing their home opener the next week. When the time came to pick last Thursday's game, simple conventional wisdom prevailed as the Steelers met Jacoby Brissett and the Browns by the shores of Lake Erie.

Either I possess great premonition by picking the Browns, or I can just admit I was desperate to get one of my picks right and erred on the side of caution by picking against the Steelers in Cleveland.

But I won’t lie: I was, in fact, desperate. Eventually, the Steelers will win a game versus a team they are favored to beat - and perhaps do so in convincing fashion. Over the previous season and a half, the Steelers have had precious few blowout victories, leaving fans clutching their collective hearts upon barstools around Western PA. Pittsburgh is rightfully hoping things change this weekend.

On paper, the Jets are still among the dregs of the AFC. Even when they muster a win, they do so on a day that the Giants, Yankees and Mets are also victorious, effectively becoming lost in the shuffle upon the news tickers of Times Square. But after a decade of picking in the top ten of almost every NFL Draft, it figures the Jets have assembled enough talent to surprise a few teams here and there. But “surprise” is a relative term in the world of sports. The fact they “surprised” the Browns in week two, with savvy AFC North veteran Joe Flacco at the helm, should really surprise no one.

Now, coming off a defeat at the hands of a desperate Cincinnati team, the Jets face their fourth straight AFC North opponent, an unusual gauntlet for a young team led by head coach Robert Saleh and returning second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. In Wilson, the Jets have their quarterback of the future in the present day, having anointed the fresh-faced Utah native their franchise leader late into his rookie year. Perhaps it’s a bit of wishful thinking, but New York is hopeful Wilson can learn from his rookie year of 2021 and lead the team to a victory in a city they’ve secured just one victory in the previous 11 contests.

Compounding the pressure and weight upon Wilson’s shoulders is the fact that the Steelers are coming off a full ten days of rest, perhaps scheming new ways to generate pressure without TJ Watt. After two weeks of failing to hit the opposing QB with the same ferocity they managed in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh will be conjuring up new looks against a battered Jets offensive line. Now missing his top three offensive tackles, Zach Wilson will be trusting a rookie fourth-round pick in Max Mitchell to contain Cam Heyward and Malik Reed on the right side. On the left, Conor McDermott will be matched up with Alex Highsmith, the league’s leader in sacks through three weeks.

With two good running backs in Michael Carter and Breece Hall in his back pocket, Zach Wilson knows he can turn to the running game to alleviate the pressure. And when all seems lost, the former BYU Cougar can take off and run as well, especially with a Steelers defensive front still struggling to get off the field and shut down the run.

In a somewhat confounding move over the long ten day break, nose tackle Tyson Alualu has been demoted in favor of Montravius Adams on the Steelers d-line. Clearly, Mike Tomlin is hoping the infusion of young talent over the trusted veteran sends a message to a defense that has waned noticeably since week one. Whether it’s injuries or execution, the Steelers defense needs to play sound football against an emerging corps of Jets playmakers, and make due without Watt, Alualu, and even Akhello Witherspoon. The sixth-year cornerback is expected to miss his first game of 2022 with a hamstring injury, opening the door for the tandem of Levi Wallace and Cam Sutton to cover rookie Garrett Wilson and former Titan Corey Davis.

As far as rookies go, Garrett Wilson has flashed on tape what made him a star at Ohio State: wiggling free in zone coverage and making defenders look foolish in man-on-man. After finding the endzone twice against Cleveland, Garrett Wilson cooled off somewhat versus Cincinnati, but now poses a threat to the Steelers defense that’s down their top corner.

On the home sideline, fellow rookie George Pickens is still seeking the impact play the Steelers drafted him to make, a play that lives longer in the minds of Steelers fans than on Sportscenter highlight reels. Despite an acrobatic catch that elicited mandatory comparisons to Odell Beckham Jr, Pickens has yet to find a level of consistency in his play, leaving the Georgia product fuming alongside his fellow wideouts while the offense searches for answers. The answer, in due time, may be turning to Kenny Pickett.

Pickett is unquestionably the Steelers’ QB of the future who, unlike Zach Wilson, must sit and wait his turn. But for now, it’s Mitch Trubisky’s offense, and the coaching staff has every reason to stick with Trubisky after the offense made measurable strides in Cleveland. Against the Browns, the Steelers attacked more often downfield and moved the pocket for their mobile quarterback, showing more of what’s possible in the Matt Canada offense.

Against a Jets defense that features coveted rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner and veteran middle linebacker CJ Moseley, the Steelers gameplan would likely favor an even distribution of passes thrown toward the boundary, testing the young corner while throwing play-action passes over the middle. If the former Raven CJ Moseley bites, it could mean a big day is in store for Pat Freiermuth and Chase Claypool, who’ve been bright spots on an otherwise struggling offensive unit.

In a matchup of offenses both ranked in the bottom half league-wide, this contest may be a matter of who breaks away with the long-awaited big run. It may be New York with their tandem backfield, or the Steelers, whose offensive line is beginning to gel after a series of inept preseason performances. Whether it’s Najee Harris or Jaylen Warren who comes away with the back-breaking run Sunday, the ball must be secured and tucked away, a lesson the rookie Warren has internalized since fumbling in Cleveland.

Truthfully, if the Steelers lose Sunday, it will be because they’ve beaten themselves, lost the turnover battle, and failed to make the big plays. If the Steelers lose, Acrisure Stadium will be off to a 0-2 start, with online petitions ready to return the naming rights to Heinz. Pickett chants will be in full force, likely coaxing the rookie into defending Trubisky and perhaps chastising fans for not being supportive of the starting QB.

This is the worst-case scenario of course, and the reality is the Steelers have found a way to right the ship in recent years after a rough September. Last year, the Steelers rebounded after a 1-3 start to make the playoffs. The same was almost true for the teams in 2018 and 2019, when it was a matter of “one play here, one play there” that separated the Steelers from playoff contention.

With so many lessons learned and so much time to correct course, it’s hard to imagine the Steelers falling flat against the Jets. Maybe it is a strong feeling, a gut feeling, a really good premonition that makes me feel this way. But the Steelers will dust themselves off after a chaotic month and begin October with a victory this Sunday in Pittsburgh, giving fans a reason to believe in their team once again.

Prediction: Steelers 27, Jets 14