Steelers - Patriots Preview & Prediction

Story by Yinzer Crazy Featured Steelers Writer Adam Davidson. Follow him on Twitter @Adam_J_Davidson

For a coach known for -isms and a wealth of unique phrases, Mike Tomlin can be forgiven for proverbially blinking during last week’s season opener in Cincinnati.

“Don’t blink! I’ll cut your damn eyelids off,” the coach has been known to shout at his players on gamedays.

“Not blinking” is a nice, suitable -ism to follow in the football world, but near-impossible to execute. Even as a fan, it was hard not to look away from the television screen as Bengals kicker Evan McPherson lined up for the go-ahead extra point at the end of regulation. But those of us who looked away, or blinked, missed an unforgettable ending to a classic AFC North brawl. Now with a hard-fought victory under their belts, the Steelers return home to Pittsburgh to face off against a familiar foe with a new look.

The New England Patriots, two years removed from the end of the Tom Brady era, have undergone an uncomfortable transition in losing their franchise’s all-time greatest player. Still, these “new” New England Patriots adhere to the football fundamentals preached by their legendary head coach Bill Belichick, playing solid defense and controlling the flow and rhythm of the game on offense. It’s one of the reasons quarterback Mac Jones was a top contender for Rookie of the Year in 2021. However, if the Patriots defense has an off day, Jones will have his work cut out for him leading his team from behind, especially with a back injury suffered in Miami in week one.

In the eleven games the Patriots have surrendered 14 or more points in the Mac Jones era, New England is 2-9, including their humiliating loss in last year’s Wild Card round to Josh Allen and the Bills. It was the most lopsided rout ever suffered by Belichick in the playoffs, perhaps signaling that The Hoodie has lost his touch in game-planning against elite quarterbacks.

Behind Allen that January night, current Steelers starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky sat ready and waiting for his opportunity as the Bills’ primary backup. Fast forward to September, Mitch is looking to unpack all the lessons he learned behind Allen in this Sunday’s matchup with the Patriots. And though it’s a tall task for a Steelers offense that has struggled on opening drives under Matt Canada, if Trubisky and company can christen their rebranded home field with an opening drive touchdown, the pressure may be too much, too soon for opposing QB Mac Jones.

But as is the case of any recent Steelers team that starts off 1-0, there’s the possibility for a major letdown in week two. Even if the struggling Steelers offense finds its footing in Pittsburgh, they’ll be doing so with a running back in Najee Harris who hasn’t been 100-percent for a while. After aggravating a foot injury in Cincinnati last week, Najee Harris may find himself surrendering even snaps to rookie Jaylen Warren, a move Najee may welcome.

“He’s a good player, he’s still learning,” Harris said of Warren this week according to Steelers.com. “As many guys as we can get on the team that can provide help in any way possible, it’s always welcoming.”

The rookie Warren earned his snaps last week through a solid stretch of preseason performances, and proceeded to show off behind a leaky Steelers offensive line by punishing would-be pass rushers in pass protection and leading the way for Chase Claypool on a jet sweep. For an offense that hasn’t yet clicked together, Matt Canada will be mixing things up and finding more ways to get his skill position players involved.

“Chase has done a good job (with jet sweeps). I thought some of those plays were pretty big plays for us,” Matt Canada said via Steelers.com. “So it won’t always be him but in that game, it kind of felt that way.”

Whether it’s via the occasional jet sweep, screen pass or deep shot downfield, the formula for the Steelers offense is simple: keep the Patriots off-balance. Valuable matchups may be won if Patriots veterans such as Devin McCourty and Matthew Judon can be slowed down and forced to think twice about their assignment.

Also on the Patriots defense, fellow veteran Jonathan Jones is taking over at corner for JC Jackson, who departed New England for the Los Angeles Chargers. Collectively, the New England defense performed well versus Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins, keeping the former Chief in check with a long of 26 yards. Look for Jonathan Jones to be shadowing Diontae Johnson in the pass game.

No matter who the Patriots field on defense, it’s time for the Steelers to buck tradition and begin tapping an untapped vein in opposing defenses: the middle of the field. In more than thirty pass attempts last week, Mitch Trubisky completed just one pass between the numbers: a 26-yarder to Pat Freiermuth off a scramble in overtime. The pass came just in the nick of time, and proves there may be opportunities and matchups to exploit if the Steelers receivers run intermediate routes over the middle. Doing so will further open things up downfield, and perhaps provide an opening for rookie George Pickens to establish a role in this offense.

Even if the Steelers offense leaves some questions unanswered after Sunday’s game, they at least have the defense to back them up. From Cam Heyward to Alex Highsmith, the defensive front has proven it can create constant pressure even without TJ Watt, who was just placed on IR for a minimum of four weeks. In the secondary, Minkah Fitzpatrick is coming off the best game of his career, and is backed up by Terrell Edmunds and two tenacious corners who don’t mind a challenge. Though the Patriots don’t possess a receiver on their roster as talented as Cincinnati’s Jamarr Chase, Ahkello Witherspoon and Levi Wallace (who will be coming off an ankle injury sustained in Cincinnati) will be ready for the likes of DeVante Parker and Nelson Agholor. No question, the two are a promising cornerback tandem in a defense overloaded with talent.

After a game the Steelers defense took their head coach’s words literally, it’s the offense’s turn to step up to the challenge. Will they blink? Much depends on the performance of the Steelers offensive line in pass protection versus a Patriots squad that blitzed heavily in Miami. And there’s the lingering question of how to manufacture offense with a limited Najee Harris. As this offense goes, so do the Steelers chances long-term in a competitive AFC.

This Sunday gives the Steelers - and Patriots for that matter - a chance to prove their worth in the post-Ben, post-Brady era. Though Belichick has the edge in head-to-head matchups with his Steelers counterpart,  Mike Tomlin is the NFL’s best motivator. And while it’s true that Belichick is the greatest pure football mind in the NFL, very few head coaches could have gotten a performance from his team like the one Tomlin got in Cincinnati last week. In Pittsburgh this Sunday, the Steelers will continue to feed off the emotion from their head coach and play inspired, focused football, with or without their eyelids.

Prediction: Steelers 20, Patriots 10