The Plan: Predicting Every Steelers' Offseason Move

Story by Yinzer Crazy Contributor Noah Nichols. Follow him on Twitter @_NoahNichols

The Pittsburgh Steelers have not had money to “play with” in roughly 18 years. Since drafting and subsequently paying Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers have always been paying Ben anywhere from 18-40 million dollars a year, and over the past decade, his contract has sat much closer to $40 million. He did take a pay cut in 2021, his final year with the Steelers, that brought his cap hit down to $25 million. Even still, the Steelers barely managed to squeak by – entering the 2021 offseason with $13 million in cap space, barely enough to re-sign wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and cornerback Cam Sutton. The team knew that as much as they wished to, there would not be any extravagant spending for one final ride with Ben. The Steelers still managed to extend the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year, T.J. Watt. After that their hands were tied. 

At the end of the proverbial tunnel was light, as the year 2022 grew closer. The Steelers – before they extended TJ Watt, were projected to be tied for the most cap space in the NFL. The Watt extension brought that number down quite a bit. At this time, they are projected to have $44 million in cap space, good for 10th best in the NFL. This offseason is setting up to be an interesting (and fun) watch, as we will be watching the Steelers do something they never could do recently – spend money in free agency.

That begs a few questions. First, can the Steelers create more cap space? If they can, how much? Should they create more cap space? And if they do, who should the Steelers spend their newfound money on?

How Teams Can Create Cap Space

Creating cap space is both simple and complex. Simple in that spending less equals having more – complex in that spending more does not always mean having less. I know that what I just said is not helping you out much, so let me clear the air.

Cap space is created by the NFL, who sets a limit for teams on how much they can spend during the year. A new salary cap limit is set every year. This year the salary cap is $208 million. Teams can exceed that limit by carrying over cap space that they did not spend during the prior season. For example, the Steelers had (roughly) $10 million in cap space, during the 2021 season. So, when you calculate how much the Steelers will have to spend next year, add $410 million in carry-over cap space. The Steelers would then have around $218 million.

Teams can also spend a lot of money on a player, but restructure or create void years in contracts to essentially “kick the can” down the road. Extensions use heavy bonuses, that convert a certain amount of a player’s cap hit that year to a check – part of which will be paid to the player immediately, and the rest will be paid over the next couple of years of the contract. This reduces the cap hit during the first year.

This strategy is successful due to the NFL’s ever-increasing salary cap. Because the league is so financially stable and on a consistent upwards trajectory, teams can afford to push cap hits down the road. In the future, teams will owe more, but also have more to spend. And there is no limit to the number of times a team can keep “kicking the can” down the road, thus making this cycle theoretically infinite. Players are fine with it, because they receive a larger check instantaneously, instead of game checks that are paid throughout the year, one in which they might be injured and miss a game and thus a check.

The Steelers – specifically Kevin Colbert - do this better than almost any other team in the NFL. Void years are a little more complicated but do essentially the same thing. If you are interested in the mechanisms of void years and want to know exactly what they do, click this.

Why am I telling you all of this? Because restructuring contracts is essential to creating more cap space, which is what the Steelers will be doing through the 2022 offseason.

The Plan to Create Cap Space

The Steelers will enter the 2022 season with roughly $44 million in cap space. That number is from the money that will be created from the rise in the salary cap from $182 million to $208, plus the $10 million they are carrying over. With some players' contracts expiring, like Ben Roethlisberger's, that will bring their total cap hit in the 2022 offseason down, thus bringing their cap space up. See what I mean about less equals more?

Presuming that the $44 million is not fluid, the Steelers can do a few things to bring that number up. First, they can cut linebacker Joe Schobert and Tackle Zach Banner. Schobert could technically be restructured, but his cap hit would not be as low as it would be if he were cut. Banner has been disappointing this season, though not entirely his fault as he has been plagued by injuries. Schobert has been serviceable, nothing special, but not unreliable either. If the Steelers want him around through 2022 and beyond, restructuring him is the best option.

I presume that they will move on, and elect to sign another linebacker in FA, draft one, and bring Buddy Johnson up to the starting position after his redshirt year. Cutting Schobert would result in a dead cap hit of $1.7 million instead of $9.7. A restructure would bring his cap hit up to roughly $4 million, but remember, his money would then be pushed into the future. With a player like Schobert, that move should probably be avoided. There are exceptions, like no better free agent linebackers being available/affordable, but I will assume that is not the case.

The Schobert cut would save $8 million. Cutting Banner would bring down his cap hit to $1.6 million, from $6.6. Cutting both players frees up $13 million. That brings up the $44 million cap space to $57 mil. After that, the Steelers have two more moves they can make to free up space. For this exercise, I am assuming that they will do so.

Restructure Cam Heyward and TJ Watt

Both moves are simple restructures. T.J. Watt is due a staggering $31 million in the 2022 season. Restructuring his contract will bring his contract down to $13 million and save $17 million. I will note that all these figures are not exact. For example; the Watt restructure would save exactly $17,223,750. It is just easier for me to round the number. There will be some discrepancies in cap space totals that you might notice, and they come from me rounding the numbers and not telling you the exact details.

Regardless, the move will save the Steelers $17 million. The Steelers can also restructure/extend Cam Heyward’s contract down from $17 million to $13 million. The resulting moves will bring the Steelers total cap space up to $78 million. By far the most money that they have had available to spend in the history of the franchise.

What about Extensions?

The Steelers need to extend a few players, three of whom will otherwise become free agents. Terrell Edmunds and Chuks Okorafor are both players that are undervalued by Steelers fans, and necessary to the team’s functionality. Edmunds is an average strong safety at worst and Chuks has been a league-average tackle. Chuks versatility makes him even more valuable. A 4-year, $20-million-dollar extension would pay Edmund’s average safety money, and result in a cap hit of $4.5 million. Though Steelers fans may not like it – they will appreciate his talent and more importantly, the fact that he has not missed a single snap since he was drafted.

Okorafor is harder to predict; his market will fluctuate due to his play and the number of tackles coming out in this year’s draft. I predict he will sign a contract extension with the Steelers worth roughly $8-million dollars this year.

Don't forget about Minkah Fitzpatrick. Minkah can be extended for 4 years, for a total of$ 69 million which would make him the second-highest-paid safety in the NFL, behind the Seahawks' Jamal Adams by 1 million dollars. His cap hit of $10 million could cut down to a signing bonus, but the extension would bring his cap hit back up, so I will leave his hit at 10 million. Finally, after JuJu Smith-Schuster said this during a Christmas video; “I would want to re-sign with the Steelers for four more years. That would be nice," I think he could be back. If JuJu is willing to meet the Steelers in the middle, and he showed he was when he chose the Steelers over the Chiefs who offered more money, then the Steelers will extend him. I predict that he will sign a 4-year, $30-million-dollar deal, with a cap hit of $8 million in 2022. So where does that bring us? Rather, where does that bring the Steelers cap total to?

Cap Space after Extensions – $57 million.

How Should the Steelers spend in Free Agency?

Conservative and strategic spending has been the Steelers mantra for the last two decades, and this year will be no different. There is a caveat; while the Steelers won’t abandon their ways, they will spend much more than usual. Now that the Steelers have some money to spend, the question is, on who will they spend it? Before I give you my predictions, I want to clarify that this depends entirely on the Steelers plan for their next quarterback. The dilemma could be a book with the way it’s being talked up around the NFL.

What should the Steelers do at Quarterback for 2022?’

Seriously. Whether it’s Aaron Rodgers winking at Mike Tomlin, Steelers fans trashing Mason Rudolph, the 2022 quarterback class being a crapshoot, and a host of other “should the Steelers do blank,” the answer is staring everyone in the face and the Steelers have announced to the world what they are going to do.

Stick with Mason Rudolph. Matt Canada belies the Steelers intentions with Rudolph:

“I’ve always said he works so hard at his football. He wants to be so good. I wouldn’t say that I’ve seen that improve but I’ve seen the benefits of that. It’s kind of like experience. The more and more you study and the more and more you work on things (you get better). He’s gotten better.”

You don’t speak like that consistently if you are not confident in him.

Rudolph is the only quarterback signed with the Steelers through the 2022 season. Now sure, if they love a quarterback like Kenny Pickett for example, and one is available when they pick, Rudolph won’t stop them from drafting a quarterback. But Rudolph does not force the Steelers into drafting a quarterback. He is the Steelers Kirk Cousins for 2022 and that is exactly what they need, want, and care about. Any other trade scenarios involving Aaron Rodgers, however enticing, can be ignored.

How the Steelers will approach Free Agency

If the Steelers believe that Rudolph is enough for 2022, they will stick to their mantra; have a team that is ready to compete before the draft starts. Easier said than done, the Steelers try to sign players that keep their team competitive, before the draft begins, allowing them to stick with the Best Player Available (BPA) draft strategy. You saw Rudolph for roughly a season in 2019 and you know his supporting cast will be stronger in 2022.

Another problem arises after the quarterback situation. What do the Steelers do with Kendrick Green? His play at center was downright awful in 2021, with no signs of improvement. Unlike Left Tackle Dan Moore, who has flashed his upside and should start for the Steelers in 2022, Green has not shown any reason to be the starter. Fans will tell you to move him to guard. While that was his natural position in college, he is undersized for what the Steelers like at guard.

He will not be the Steelers starting center when the 2022 season begins and that leaves Green without a position. The Steelers will not cut him, but neither will he prevent the Steelers from signing/drafting a guard and center. Green will revert to a guard/center backup.

Before I move on, I know Steelers fans will disagree with leaving Moore at left tackle. The Steelers do not have any other choice, not before the draft. They do not have enough cap space to sign two tackles. And Ben Roethlisberger recently said that Moore is the “Left tackle of the future.” Any questions about where Moore is starting next year were answered by Ben.

The good thing about extending Chuks is that he can play swing left tackle, and it is his natural position. While Moore will be slated to start, as he has more potential, he will compete with Chuks for the left tackle position, leaving the right tackle position open to be filled in with a free agent.

Technically the Steelers could say that Moore is the LT and Chuks the RT, but after free agency, one side of the line will be changed. And it will be the right side. Right tackles are less expensive than left tackles, and Moore and Chuks are both better at left tackle than right.

Now that we know what is happening on the offensive line, let’s move on to what the Steelers need, and who they should sign.

What position groups need Free Agent Pickups?

-Inside Linebacker

-Left Guard

-Center

-Right Tackle

-Cornerback

I ignored the defensive line here because the Steelers will be getting back Stephon Tuitt and Tyson Alualu from injured reserve in 2022, both of whom will be ready to play when the season begins. They can add another player via the draft, but the need is not great enough to require a free agent.

The Steelers are not going to sign the “big names” on day one of free agency. They will shop for value deals like they always do. I do believe that they will pay up for a number one cornerback because they need one and do not have the draft capital to acquire one. (And the Steelers have had the opposite luck they have with receivers, on cornerbacks they draft, Cam Sutton aside). Could it be Joe Haden? In this exercise, we say no.

Free Agent Signees

Cornerback; J.C. Jackson – 4 years, $64 million ($16 million per year)

Jackson is a better player in man coverage than zone, which is a drawback for the Steelers, who primarily play zone coverage. Still, all zone eventually becomes man, and Jackson would be the uncontested number one corner in the Steelers secondary. He has had 15 interceptions over the past two years and would be a difference-maker for the Steelers at corner, something they never seem to have. (Others considered; Joe Haden)

            Left Guard; James Daniels – 3 years, $30 million ($10 million per year)

Daniels is a former second-round pick and only 24 years old. He is an ascending player and would be the Steelers starting left guard for years to come. Daniels would be an immediate upgrade over Trai Turner and give the Steelers one of the best guard duos in the league once Kevin Dotson and Daniels reach their potential. (Others considered, Laken Tomlinson, Brandon Scherff) 

            Right Tackle; Morgan Moses – 3 years, $22 million ($7.5 million per year)

Moses was a name connected to the Steelers last year, and this year it finally happens. A mauling run blocker and fine pass protector, Moses’s age is his biggest drawback, being 30 years old. He would be an above-average placeholder until the Steelers could supplant him with a draft pick. (Others considered; Terron Armstead, Orlando Brown, Duane Brown, Trent Brown)

            Center; Ben Jones– 3 years, $21 million ($7 million per year)

Ben Jones has gotten better as he’s aged, ultimately becoming a top-12 center in the league. Effective in pass protection, and better in run blocking, he would easily take the position from Green and prove that he is one of the best centers in the NFL. The trio of Dotson, Daniels, and Jones would be one of the nastiest in the league, and Najee Harris would not need to focus on breaking tackles in the backfield anymore. He has only missed one game in the past three years. His age is a drawback. (Others considered; Ryan Jensen, Brian Allen)

            Cornerback, Ahkello Witherspoon– 2 years, $13 million ($6.5 million per year)

Witherspoon has been a pleasant surprise for the Steelers this season and allowed the lowest quarterback rating in the league when targeted. Although Witherspoon did not start until week 11, he has proved that he is worth a new contract. Only 26 years old, Witherspoon paired with J.C. Jackson and Cam Sutton would be a strong cornerback room. The Steelers will keep the Free Agent in-house before another team can snatch him up. (Note: if Witherspoon prices himself out of the Steelers range, the Steelers will not pursue, and will save/spend the money elsewhere) (Others considered; Charvarius Ward, Donte Jackson)

Other players considered, but not a must-have/need; Leighton Vander Esch (LB), Anthony Barr (LB), Jordan Whitehead (Safety), Alexander Johnson (LB), Marcus Mariota (QB), Bryce Callahan (CB), Akiem Hicks (DL), Carlton Davis (CB)

2022 Projected Free Agent Acquisitions:

-          J.C. Jackson, CB

-          James Daniels, LG

-          Ben Jones, C

-          Morgan Moses, RT

-          Ahkello Witherspoon, CB

In addition, the Steelers would also have extended:

-          JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR

-          Chuks Okorafor, RT/LT

-          Terrell Edmunds, SS

-          Minkah Fitzpatrick, FS

Total players extended/signed:

-          JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR

-          Chuks Okorafor, RT/LT

-          Terrell Edmunds$13 million, SS

-          Minkah Fitzpatrick, FS

-          J.C. Jackson, CB

-          James Daniels, LG

-          Ben Jones, C

-          Morgan Moses, RT

-          Ahkello Witherspoon, CB

The Steelers would have filled all of their major weaknesses, added some depth, and most importantly, presented themselves with the opportunity to draft the BPA when they pick. The offensive line would be revamped (again), this time with players that will make it a strength instead of the glaring weakness. The run game would follow suit.

The defensive side of the ball was mostly focused on bringing back Edmunds, and Johnson was signed more for depth than anything else. J.C. Jackson would allow the Steelers to play man coverage if they so desired and could/would travel with the opponent’s number one wide receiver.

After Free Agency Outlook

The Steelers would be left with $10 million in cap space, enough to sign their draft class and keep about $7 million free in case of an in-season emergency, something they prepare for every season. The Steelers would be free to draft whomever they liked, no need to reach for a player in the first or second due to need. Quarterback? (If it’s Kenny Pickett), sure. Center? If Tyler Linderbaum is available, make the pick. Stud offensive tackle? You get the picture. A wide receiver is not out of the question in the first round either. 

Will the Steelers follow the plan I have laid out? Not with all the same players, and the contracts might differ slightly. It will be closer to what I have outlined than not, and I think that I speak for all Steelers fans when I say that this free-agent class would be a home run if the Steelers can make it happen.

Hopefully, Kevin Colbert can do a better job of it than I did/can. I tried my best to fill in his shoes. I will not dive into projected draft picks, though I wish I could. The draft is simply too far away at this point, and I do not know enough about the players.

With that said, thank you for reading all 3,000 words of my best impression of an NFL GM. I hope you enjoyed this article, as it’s the longest and most thoughtful one I’ve ever written. Let me know what you think, and please give me a quick follow on Twitter @_NoahNichols.

(All salary cap numbers were obtained via Spotrac and PFF)