Evaluating Kenny Pickett By the Numbers

The Steelers world is upside down right now. With so many questions from yinzer nation, I wanted to take a deep dive into Kenny Pickett, since he and Matt Canada seem to be taking all the heat recently, and rightfully so.

Taking a step back into Pickett's college career, it makes sense why the Steelers took him 20th overall. If you remember, there was talk of Pickett or current Tennessee backup Malik Willis in the draft. While Willis has yet to start in a regular season NFL game, I think Pickett was a smart choice over the unproven Liberty grad. Looking at pure college stats, Pickett's numbers heavily outweigh Willis in passing yards and TD's thrown. Malik's only strength over Pickett was his rushing ability, and with Najee Harris coming off a 7 TD, 1,000+ yard rushing rookie season, I don't think having a rushing QB was even in the conversation.

Pickett was the talk of the town while playing for the University of Pittsburgh, and for good reason. Under the guidance of Mark Whipple, Pitt was throwing the ball more than ever. Pickett's first season without Whipple wasn't horrible, he threw for 12 TD's, but next season his 3,098 passing yards were a huge jump from the previous 1,969. For the next three years Kenny would thrive under Whipple, and even though Pickett would only play 9 games in 2020, he came back in 2021 with a phenomenal stat line of 42 TD's, 4k+ passing yards, and only 7 picks thrown.

Now we enter the Steelers/Matt Canada era of the Pickett saga, and it looks bleak. In 2022 Pickett started 13 games, and while he looked like he was starting to put things together towards the end of the season, his INT's (9) outweighed his TD's (7), and his 389 attempts in 13 games played netted him roughly 2k passing yards. Compare that with his 13 games in his final season with Pitt and the aforementioned 4k passing yards with 42 touchdowns, to say Pickett fell off a cliff is an understatement. 

It can be hard to judge a QB from their collegiate level of play moving on to the NFL. Few can make the transition with success, and most don't pan out, statistically speaking. Pickett is in one of those rare categories of being in his second year and still having a huge question mark on his head. I know a lot of yinz are thinking there's no question, he stinks, we need to look elsewhere for the future. Fair, given his play thus far it's easy to write him off, but that's what Pittsburgh does so often. It was the same with Marc Andre Fleury, Tristan Jarry, and everyone on the Pirates. 

Look, I've been a Pittsburgh sports fan from birth, I get it. The Pittsburgh fan base has been spoiled for many years in all sports categories. Unfortunately, I wasn't alive when the Pirates had their day, the Penguins were the team to beat for the better part of a decade. The Steelers won two super bowls right around the time I was becoming a huge sports fan, it was bliss. For the past decade though, it's been rough. We've had to put up with the Nutting era of baseball that has made me cringe every October. I've been nervous every year the Penguins make the playoffs that they won't make it past the first round. Now, we are looking at a Steelers team that needs a real kick in the ass if they are to ever be playoff contenders again.

With all that being said I am still going to be riding the Pickett train. I still think Pickett can be a franchise QB with the right guidance and an offensive line that can give him more time to develop plays. 

If you have been paying attention to baseball this past year something beautiful happened in Philadelphia (I know I can't believe what I just said either). Trea Turner was traded to the Phillies this year from the Dodgers for a whopping $27 million a year salary. He started off the season looking like garbage and fans were rightfully unhappy about it. He stunk out loud and his visible frustration was apparent to anyone watching him play. In early August, a movement started by a local Philadelphia jock talk radio host Jack Fritz, who encouraged fans to get behind Trea, and make him feel welcomed in Philly. The next day Turner jacked a home run and has been on fire ever since.

I don't know if Pickett is the answer, I don't know if he will turn out and be the franchise QB the Steelers have been looking for in the absence of Big Ben Roethlisberger. What I do know, is that Pittsburgh fans can be quick to judge, and be "fat and sassy and spoiled" as Mike Tomlin put it. Pickett may not be playing up to his potential, but we as the fans are not helping the situation either. I don't have the reach or the prowess of a jock talk radio influencer, but I do have a voice. I plan to start using it to hype Pickett up as much as I can, and maybe if we all do the same, he might start feeling like he belongs in the black and gold, and his performance may reflect that as well.