Evaluating Steelers Coaching situation amidst 4 game skid

After a four-game skid to end the season, heading into the playoffs, fans and media alike are calling for coaching changes in Pittsburgh—not just the head coach but also the offensive and defensive coordinators. While understandable after a complete implosion, how reasonable is it for the Steelers to make wholesale changes? Let's go through all three. 

Teryl Austin:

The Steelers defense ranks 7th in the NFL in points per game. For context, that's 3 points behind the league-leading LA Chargers, and only a half point per game behind the Vikings and Brian Flores (just for those who keep screaming we shouldn’t have let him go). The Steelers are 4th in the NFL regarding interceptions with 17 and are second in the league in total turnovers with 33. While there have been some communication struggles at the back half of the year, most of that can be explained by young players having to step up and the defense being on the field a lot. The Steelers have only had 26 minutes in time of possession over their last 3 games.

This one feels simple to me. Austin should keep his job. I’m not sure there is any evidence or argument to support his firing outside of it would make some Twitter jockeys feel better. 

Aruthur Smith

Under Matt Canada in 2023 the Steelers scored 17 points per game, roughly 304 yards per game and finished with a total of 13 passing touchdowns and 16 rushing.  They also finished 2nd in the league in turnovers with 16 and ranked below 20th in every other offensive category. That includes points, yards, touchdowns, 1st down percentage, etc. 

Under Arthur Smith the Steelers offense points per game jumped to 22.4 per game, had a slight increase in yards per game with 319 and had 21 passing touchdowns along with 13 rushing. And while 4 more overall touchdowns does not seem like a drastic improvement, the Steelers offense was moving the ball more efficiently under Smith than Canada. In 2023 the Steelers ranked 20th in time of possession with 29 minutes per game on average. In 2024 the Steelers jumped up to 7th holding on the ball for almost 31 minutes per game per average. For what it's worth, the Steelers punted 89 times in 2023 and only 68 in 2024. That translates to less 3 and outs. 

While the offense has struggled in recent weeks it is important to evaluate the offense across the full 17 games. In his first year with two new quarterbacks Smith was able to bring an improvement to the offense, something that fans should be excited to grow on, not get rid of. 

Smith is drawing head coaching interviews and while some fans are excited at the prospect of getting rid of Smith, they should be concerned with losing him.

Yes, Smith runs the toss sweep more than fans would like, but that is not enough to fire Smith. If we are being realistic the Steelers simply lack offensive talent. In a fair evaluation you could say the Steelers have maybe 3 players that are above average at the positions. Pickens is the obvious at WR, Isaac Seumalu could be considered an above average guard, and Friermuth has moments where looks like an above average tight end. Both tackles are average on their best days, the center and right guard are rookies, Najee is not special, Warren could be, Russ is past his days of being elite, and we all know there is no special in the rest of the WR room.

The fact that Smith has been able to elevate, even slightly, what is an offense that is probably one of the least talented in the NFL, should be commended. 

This is another one that feels obvious. Keep Smith in the building. 

Mike Tomlin 

Deep breaths everyone. I can understand the frustration with Tomlin as a head coach and all the Tomlinisms and platitudes can be starting to wear on the nerves of fans. It seems as though the Steelers have been having the same season for the last few years. Limp their way above .500 and then fall into the playoffs only to get buzz sawed by the Chiefs, Bills, or (and this makes me throw up in my mouth) the Browns.

7 straight playoff losses can understandably have fans pulling their hair out when it comes to Tomlin and feeling like a change at the head coaching position is due. I can’t say I entirely disagree. Sometimes things come to an end naturally; it does feel like we are headed towards the natural conclusion in Tomlin’s tenure. But we need to be realistic.

Tomlin has gotten teams into the playoffs that really had no business being in the playoffs. And while you can argue that some of that is of his own creation, there are not many coaches that could do what Tomlin has done in the last 17 years. 

It is also important to remember that the Steelers have been in a rebuild for several seasons as they have transitioned away from the Big Ben era. And Tomlin has been able to allow this rebuild to produce teams that compete for the playoffs, but not much farther because of a lack of overall talent as they get younger and try to find stop-gap pieces on certain key positions.

The question is, do you want your “rebuild” to look like that? What fans need to keep in mind is that Tomlin has been the nucleus that has held together what otherwise would be a house of cards in Pittsburgh. His presence is why teams continue to play hard, why free agents make their way to Pittsburgh, and why players like TJ Watt chose to re-sign.

If the Steelers were to part ways, whether that be trading him, firing him, mutual agreements or whatever the case may be, a few things are going to happen. Tomlin would be the first domino to fall. The idea that the Steelers could just “go get Ben Johnson” is kind of laughable. Ben Johnson is a first-year head coach who is probably going to take the Bears job because they have a young QB, and draft capital. The Steelers, do not. What is more, taking on the mantle of Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher, and Mike Tomlin, takes a special kind of human. Being the fourth head coach of a franchise in the last 60 years isn’t exactly ideal for a first year head coach. There is going to be immediate pressure. The first game he loses fans will be calling for his job, because the expectation is that a new coach would take the team from making the playoffs to winning multiple playoff games.

That is not very likely. What is more likely is that the new head coach is going to face a ground up rebuild. This team, at least offensively, is not a Super Bowl roster. I would predict a few three to four-win seasons under new leadership and players like Cam Heyward, TJ Watt, Minkah FItzpatrick and others will start to look for ways out of Pittsburgh.

I know that seems dramatic, but these players are looking at later portions of their career and have openly said Tomlin was a large reason they were there. Without him, losing these level of players is very much in play.

Last thing. Steelers fans need to brace themselves for Tomlin to be successful wherever he goes. Dan Graziano said on ESPN that Tomlin is valued way more outside of Pittsburgh than he is in Pittsburgh, and that's the truth. The rest of the NFL holds our head coach in a much higher regard than we do, and if we let him walk, there are going to be teams that would let their head coaches go. To hire him. If he goes to Chicago, Dallas, New York, or any other franchise, Tomlin is going to succeed. It's just who he is. 

There is a chance that Tomlin even wins playoff games with another team while the Steelers flounder under new leadership. And Steelers fans need to keep that in mind as they call for his job.

I have trouble coming to a solid conclusion because like many fans I am tired of having the same season over and over and would like to see the Steelers compete for another Super Bowl. But the reality is, if Tomlin leaves, fans better be ready for a complete overhaul, and some losing seasons.