Is it time for a new Head Coach in Pittsburgh?

As the regular season ends so begins the annual tradition of fans and media calling for Mike Tomlin to be fired. However this year especially it not only feels louder than normal, but more likely than it has been in the past. Personally I would be shocked if Art Rooney and management decide to part ways with Tomlin, or trade him to the Bears as some have suggested. As an avid Tomlin supporter even I am starting to grow tired of the same old same old as it pertains to the Steelers season. Like every fan, I not only want to see the Steeelers win a playoff game, but actually compete for a Superbowl. I also acknowledge that it may be time for both the Steelers and Tomlin to part ways.

I say this not as an indictment of Tomlin, as he has had a hall of fame career, but in the NFL, like anything else, everything has an expiration date. Sometimes situations need fresh eyes, new messages, and new leadership. While I don’t think that happens at the end of this season or next, it does feel like it is on the horizon. However, the Steelers fans that are eagerly waiting for the departure of Tomlin should evaluate the realities of what losing a hall of fame head coach would look like.

Firstly, to echo the point of Dan Graziano from ESPN, Tomlin seems to be valued far more around the NFL than he is in Pittsburgh. Which is true. To an extent we have been spoiled as fans, complaining about seasons that over half the league would sacrifice almost anything to have. The expectations in Pittsburgh are always high, much higher than first round playoff exits, which leads to Tomlin garnering more criticism than he honestly deserves. To that point, a number of teams would take Tomlin without a second interview. He would be at the top of the list for teams like the Saints, Jets, Bears, or Raiders. 

In fact, several teams would part ways with their coach to bring in Tomlin. Jerry Jones would happily part ways with Mike McCarthy if he could replace him with a proven winner like Mike T. On top of that, Tomlin would be successful in those places. Despite some of the vitriol on social media and from fans, Tomlin is a winner and a leader of men. There isn’t any argument there. He is also far from retirement. The average age of an NFL head coach is roughly 48 and Tomlin is only 52. Unless he just tired of coaching, which doesn’t seem to be the case, Tomlin has a lot of years left. All of that adds up too Tomlin probably going and being successful wherever he goes next. Especially if gets hired by a franchise that isn’t in sheer dysfunction, i.e. New Orleans. That's really just a fact that fans are going to have to face and personally I am going to have a hard time seeing Tomlin anywhere else but Pittsburgh.

This is not to say that there are not some fair criticisms of Tomlin. He's not above reproach certainly. I simply will not buy into the “he doesn’t have a coaching tree” argument, as neither does Bill Bellechick, and few other defensive head coaches do, it is not unfair to say that Tomlin has struggled to build an offensive staff. After Todd Haley left and Big Ben began to age the Steelers offense began to slip into mediocrity. Trying to play great defense and control the ball is one way to win in the NFL, but taking to the next step requires offensive fire power, and the Steelers just haven’t had that.



To be objective, the Steelers are in the middle of transitioning from their franchise hall of fame quarterback, which isn’t easy for any coach. Yes there was no succession plan for Ben but I ask you, what would you have done? Replacing QBs in the NFL is not easy. Tomlin Drafted both Mason Rudolph and Josh Dobbs, much to the chagrin of Big Ben I might add, neither of which panned out. Then he drafted Kenny Pickett who is no longer in Pittsburgh, and then made moves for both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. While none of these QBs have really taken the offense to the next level, you have to admit Tomlin has tried, even making an uncharacteristic decision to move off Kenny Pickkett in his second year. Around the NFL teams struggle to replace franchise QBs. The Colts still can’t find the successor to Andrew Luck, the Patriots are on their second 1st round QB since Brady, the Saints still haven’t found the heir apparent to Drew Brees and the Chicago Bears haven’t had a franchise guy since…Jim McMahon? Do I even need to bring up the Browns? The only team that has been able to gracefully slide from one franchise QB to the next has been the Packers, and if anything they are the exception to prove the rule. Also I feel the need to point out that they still only won 2 Super Bowls between Favre and Rodgers.

Point being is that the reality is Tomlin has maintained a high success where most coaches would have been recycling first round draft picks. The effort to replace Big Ben has been there, the success, not so much. No one can deny that. Riding with Randy Ficthner and Matt Canada as long as he did is certainly an indictment of Tomlin. And one could argue that finding the next QB for Pittsburgh, might need to fall on the next head coach in Pittsburgh.

While I am open and accept the idea that Tomlin will not be the coach of Pittsburgh in the relatively near future. We have to be logical about the situation. It is a knee jerk emotional reaction to want to fire him before they have even played the Ravens, but for arguments sake, let's say it happens. What happens next?

One argument I have seen floating around is the Steelers should “just hire Ben Johnson”. Maybe I am being short sighted here but I simply can’t understand why people seem to think it would be a foregone conclusion that Johnson or any aspiring head coach would take a job Pittsburgh offered. Johnson is most likely going to be the next head coach of the Chicago bears for a couple reasons. One being they have Caleb Williams, and Pittsburgh doesn’t. Despite his struggles Williams is one of the most promising prospects in the NFL and I am confident that Ben Johnson believes he can be the coach to get the most out of the young quarterback. They also have a decent roster of WRs and a capable defense. And on top of all of that, they will pick 10th in this year's draft. As if that wasn’t enough, they Bears have the 5th most cap space of any other team in the NFL. The notoriously stingy Steelers sit at 13.

The bears are historically dysfunctional though let's say he is turned off by that. The New England Patriots are another, maybe even better opportunity. They have a promising young QB in Drake Maye, who has more potential than any QB the Steelers have right now. They also pick fourth in the NFL Draft and have the most cap space in the NFL. Maybe that's too much pressure trying to follow in the footsteps of Bill Bellichik. The Jaguars have Trevor Lawernce and the 5th pick in the draft. The Raiders have a higher draft pick than Pittsburgh and the 2nd highest cap space in the league. The Saints and Jets also pick higher and have more talent on offense. And those are just the coaching jobs open before the postseason ends. What if the Cowboys move on from Mike McCarthy or the Dolphins make a surprise move and can Mike McDaniel? Both teams have higher picks and more offensive firepower. All teams that would probably hire Tomlin too just by the way.

Now let's look at the Steelers should they have a head coaching job come available. The Steelers have not been below .500 since 2003 and were only eliminated from the playoffs 3 times in the same timeframe. This would be their fourth coach since 1969. Quick math, that's 56 years. You’re not just filling the shoes of Tomlin but of Cowher and Noll before him. There are fans old enough who have been alive to see all three coaches…dad. Anyways, this head coach is also going to face tremendous pressure from day one. This isn’t the Bears or the Jets where winning more than four games is going to be counted as a success. Even making the playoffs won’t get you a lot of credit in Pittsburgh as the new head coach. 

The expectation in Pittsburgh, at least from fans, is that the new head coach will get them from just making the playoffs, to competing for the Super Bowl. Steelers fans aren’t patient. It might not even take a season for fans to start calling for change if they miss the playoffs the offense isn’t drastically changed. Hell fans want Arthur Smith gone because his average yards per first down or play action EPA isn’t higher than Matt Canadas, EVEN THOUGH they are scoring more points. 

Even with the consistent success the Steelers have seen across 3 head coaches it took Bill Cowher 13 years before he won his first Super Bowl. You all know you’re not that patient. On average, a first year coach wins 4 to 5 games per season in their first three seasons. On top of that, the average tenure of most NFL head coaches is only three years. The odds of the Steelers find the fourth head coach to keep them afloat is very, very unlikely. That's before we talk about the fact the Steelers have a pick in the bottom half of the first round and sit at the middle of the road when it comes to cap space.

It takes a unique kind of person to try and take on the kind of task, and it makes the Steelers an unattractive option for many coaches. What does this mean? My prediction is that Tomlin goes the winning ways for a while. My guess is that many free agents will walk with Tomlin gone, a veteran not interested in a rebuild like Cam Heyward would most likely call it a career, and those of you that love Justin Fields will probably see a new head coach give him, maybe a season? More than likely he will want to bring his own QB. I would even go far as to say I wouldn’t be surprised if TJ Watt wants to drift his way to a contender not an organization in a full scale rebuild.

If you want Tomlin gone, brace yourselves, because things would get much worse, before they get better.