Revisiting and Revising Steelers Record Predictions

When the Steelers’ schedule was released in May, I took a stab at predicting what the Steelers record would be when it was all said and done. Upon rereading that prediction, I predicted the Week 1 loss to the Niners, a split with division opponent Cleveland, and wins against the Raiders, Titans, Packers. I missed on my prediction of a victory over the Jags and the Texans (where I suggested we cancel the season if we couldn’t win that game and, we very nearly did cancel it after that drubbing). I also predicted losses to the Rams and Bengals (prior to a Joe burrow injury) and the Steelers offered pleasant surprises. 

With some inaccuracies on the exact games the Steelers would win and lose, I was actually correct about a lot of the story lines that would originate from the season. As always, the Steelers lose games that they shouldn’t and manage to win games that we never thought they would compete in. As I said Matt Canada would be a big part of their struggles, questions would be raised about Kenny, and many would call for a changing of the guard and moving on from Mike Tomlin. 

I also happened to correctly predict that the Steelers would sit at 7-4 at this point in the season. I’m sure that many of you are reading this thinking that I am tooting my own horn here, and you would be right. Freaking toot toot. Despite a roller coaster of emotion from fans, shifting from firing everyone on the staff too, praising this team as being a dangerous opponent in the playoffs, the Steelers are playing well and sitting pretty.

Now, when I made these predictions, I did so without accounting for Joe Burrow being out for the season, or firing Matt Canada midseason, something that hasn’t happened since World War II. So, with the home stretch of the season coming up, let’s revisit and see if the Steelers will make good on the 12-5 prediction I made.

Despite lacking a lot of point production against the Bengals the Steelers offense looked brand new after the Canada firing. Coincidence? Maybe, but the first 400-yard game in three years offers some hope for what the rest of the season might entail for this offense, especially if they can put the ball in the endzone. Kenny looked crisp, decisive, and threw some beautiful balls, really the best he has looked as a Steeler, the running game was dominant, and were an official’s botched call away from another Diontae Johnson touchdown.

Although, I will take that worth a grain of salt when making these predictions, because one game is not enough of a sample size to say that the Steelers offense is “back” or will remain as productive or become even more productive as the season moves on. So, with that being said, let's take a look at the last six games of the season. 

I originally predicted a win against the Arizona Cardinals, and I am going to stand by that. They are 2-10 right now even after the return of Kyler Murray, who understandably does not look his best after his return from his ACL injury. They lack offensive weapons, especially across the line of scrimmage, and the Steelers historically do well against mobile QBs for whatever reason. On defense, they also lack talent, giving the Steelers another chance to sharpen their offense.  I do have mixed feelings about Kyler’s performance in this game considering my campaign for him to be in the black and gold next year, but I will take the win. 8-4 as we move into December football.

In a short week the Steelers will stay home against the visiting Patriots. The Patriots are in shambles right now and consistently waiver on whether or not they want Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe to be their starter, and now just re-signed Matt Coral, who may even get a chance. I am calling this a win, but this is going to be a classic Steelers sloppy victory. Belichick typically has Mike Tomlin’s number, being 8-3 in their head-to-head matchups. However, there is just too much dysfunction right now to say that the Steelers lose, but this game is going to be much closer than it should be, I am warning yinz now. Nonetheless, 9-4, somehow. 

Unleashing hell in December? Maybe.

Now, we move to the Colts which has the potential to be flexed for whatever reason, but that is neither here nor there. I had predicted that the Steelers would win this game against rising star Anthony Richarson, but since his season ending surgery, they have stuck with Gardner Minshew. He has a tendency to give the ball away, already having thrown 7 picks in 11 games, and the Steelers have a knack for turning the ball over. This game scares me because it would be a road game coming off a predicted three game win streak, and things just never go that well for the Steelers, but if they win the turnover battle and the offense is as good as they were against the Bengals, I see another win. 10-4 as we inch towards the playoffs.

The Steelers will return home in their second game against the Bengals. They have a tough 3 game stretch before they come into Pittsburgh and there is a chance their season is just over at this point, but they do like to play the villain. This game is another one that should be more competitive than it needs to be, but the Steelers are at home fighting for AFC the North and Playoff positioning, I see 11-4. 

Now, here is where the Steelers fall on their face a little. Assuming everything shakes out as I have predicted, the Steelers will be traveling out to the west coast, where they typically struggle, coming off a 4-game win streak. The glass slipper has to fall off at some point. I don’t see this as some sort of drubbing at all, but the Seahawks have a really good defense and Geno is capable, although not as good as he was last year. I think Kenny turns the ball over once or twice against their really good corners, and the Steelers lose a close one, falling to 11-5.

In the final game of the season, the Steelers will travel to Baltimore for their second clash with their division rival. There is a real chance here that the Ravens don’t care about this game despite it being a rivalry. They play the Jags, Niners, and Dolphins in the three games before the Steelers, and if they manage to win all three, I could see them as the 1 seed with a first round bye headed into the playoffs. I would be shocked if Lamar plays in that instance because they are playing very well right now and just can’t afford injury. I see a win here in a meaningless game for the Ravens. 12-5 it is.

Even now this feels like a bold prediction, but not an impossibility. I am not simply just predicting 12-5 to satisfy my ego, things just genuinely seem like they are going the Steelers way right now, on paper. TJ has remained healthy; the defense creates turnovers and hasn’t given up more than 20 points since the Jags. If they can get and remain healthy the rest of the season there is no reason they couldn’t be 12-5. I fully understand that a typical Steelers melt down is coming at least once or twice in these last 6 games, the Colts, Seahawks, and Bengals all being likely candidates, and I tried to account for that. But, looking at it on paper, I still see 12-5. But, as I said last time, they don’t play the game on paper.