Steelers-Falcons: Opening Game Forecast

Steelers fans it is that time again. Another season is upon us and for the Black and Gold, Mike Tomlin brings to the field this year a new look team. There are so many fresh faces, and the anticipation has built up to an exciting crescendo. Leading the way with playing for the Steelers the very first time is quarterback Russell Wilson. Joining the team as his backup in from the Chicago Bears by way of a trade is Justin Fields. The third QB on the roster is also a new face, he being Kyle Allen. 

What we have with the three quarterbacks is a complete replacement from a year ago when it was Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and Mitch Trubisky, all three now with new teams (Eagles, Titans, Bills). During this past off-season and through training camp, there was a loud buzz among sports talk shows and from NFL experts many of whom wanted to say that Russell Wilson will not be a great addition to the team. 

I beg to differ. While the wide receiving corps will not be greeting Brandon Aiyuk to the team as he signed an extension with the San Franciso 49ers, that part of Pittsburgh’s offense will be suspect. But it is the defense that might be the most exciting in 2024. In a word, they should be DOMINANT.

The Steelers open the season on the road with successive away games first in Atlanta and then in Denver. Most experts think the Steelers will have to win early to compete for the playoffs because the latter half of their schedule is exceedingly difficult. I’m a strong believer that if you want to be the best you must defeat the best. Each week I will provide a prediction for the next Steelers game and give insight into the forthcoming opponent. First up are the Falcons and their new quarterback, Kirk Cousins. 

Offense vs. offense

Fasten your seatbelts Steelers Nation. Here we go as the Russell Wilson era begins. How long that lasts remain to be seen but Justin Fields is waiting in the wings for his turn. That’s a problem any coach would not mind having given Fields’ athleticism and potential. But Wilson is a proven commodity and while some think he was not particularly good in Denver last season, a situation that saw him get benched, he still finished with 3,070 yards passing, 26 touchdowns, only eight interceptions, and a completion percentage of 66.4 which was his third highest during his career. His numbers far outweigh what Kenny Pickett did in 2023. 

As for the wide receiving unit, George Pickens is now atop the heap with the trade of Diontae Johnson to Carolina and then we add two more unfamiliar faces in Van Jefferson and rookie Roman Wilson. Calvin Austin returns with something to prove. The last receiver is Scotty Miller, so this group is not exactly scaring anyone. Not yet anyway. Another new face is Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith who has pledged a strong running game and more activity from the tight end position therefore we could see some big numbers from Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington. 

Mike Tomlin stressed physicality in training camp and promised that his trenches on offense would be aggressive and knock the snot out of opponents. To get to that point he and Omar Khan drafted two offensive lineman in this year’s draft with the first two picks. In the opening round it was Troy Fautanu then the Steelers found their next great center in Zach Frazier who was thrust into the starting role sooner than later because of a season ending injury to Nate Herbig.

Najee Harris is primed for his best season yet with the improved offensive line and Jaylen Warren will again be his dangerous backup. Chris Boswell returns to perform the kicking duties as he is easily one of the best kickers in the league. Opposite him punting the ball is yet another newcomer, Cameron Johnson. The fresh faces are abound on this roster, Cordarrelle Patterson, Patrick Queen, Donte Jackson, DeShon Elliott, and then the rookie class. Making their NFL debut are the aforementioned Fautanu, Van Jefferson, and Roman Wilson.

As for the Atlanta Falcons, Kirk Cousins comes in from Minnesota with 12 seasons under his belt, split exactly in half between Washington and the Vikings. While Falcons fans believe he is their new savior and the man who can get them back into the playoffs, there are also plenty of non-believers and I’m one of them. Last season Cousins missed over half of the season with an injury so his health heading into this campaign will be suspect. Cousins is a solid quarterback, but it is doubtful that he will put much fear into any defense. Running the ball for Atlanta in the top spot on the depth chart is Bijan Robinson who rushed for 976 yards in 2023 and had decent numbers carrying the ball to boot. Former Steeler Ray-Ray McCloud now starts for the Falcons and Drake London joins him as does Darnell Mooney. The most dangerous weapon the Dirty Birds have on offense will be Kyle Pitts at tight end.

While Pitts scored just three times last season he did catch 53 passes for 667 yards. Attempting field goals for Atlanta will be Bradley Pinion, and despite being in the league since 2015, he has yet to line up for a field goal try as he has only been on the field for kickoffs.

Offensive advantage: Pittsburgh. Quite simply, the Steelers offense is much more talented. Russell Wilson knows how to win, and he’s been to two Super Bowls. George Pickens is an absolute threat on offense and if he increases his maturity level, he can become extremely dangerous. In this game I expect results from Pittsburgh’s offense, and I believe they will get off to a fast start. If they can provide the defense with a nice lead this game could get ugly for Atlanta. 

Now the fun part. Pittsburgh’s defense.

This until was formidable in 2023, in 2024 they are going to be downright scary. In comes former Baltimore Raven Patrick Queen who might end up being one of the best signings in Steelers history right up there with the Jerome Bettis draft day trade. Nothing needs to be said about T.J. Watt, his accomplishments speak for themselves. Watt should have been the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year last season. In a word, he was robbed. Up front Cameron Heyward returns for yet another season, one of the steadiest and consistent players in Pittsburgh’s defensive history. Much is expected from Keeanu Benton and Larry Ogunjobi so the three should cause problems if they play to potential. 

Next is the Steelers bread and butter, linebackers. Led by T.J. Watt and the addition of Queen, Elandon Roberts will start at right linebacker, and he is a tackling machine. Alex Highsmith complements Watt but the depth at linebacker is deep. Steelers Nation should get excited about the drafting of Payton Wilson. This kid is for real and plays much like Watt as does second year man Nick Herbig. Tyler Matakevich is a quality backup but between Nick Watt, Highsmith, Herbig, and Wilson, they all play in a similar fashion and should create havoc for opposing teams. 

At the back of the defense is the secondary which will instantly be improved with the return of a healthy Minkah Fitzpatrick who is prepared to play his style of being a centerfielder in the secondary. Newcomers DeShon Elliott and Donte Jackson have come aboard and an opportunity for a clean start and a chance to prove they are among the league’s best. Joey Porter should be even better than he was in his rookie campaign. 

Backing up the starters at cornerback and safety is Cory Trice Jr. who could not play last season due to an injury and his potential is unlimited. The same can be said of Darius Rush. Camerson Sutton is back as a Steeler but is suspended until nearly the hallway mark of the season due to his domestic violence problems. Miles Killebrew is back for another season, but he is a better special teamer. Damontae Kazee was impressive when he was on the field last year and he returns at strong safety. The Steelers drafted Ryan Watts this year, but he is on injured reserve and won’t play this season. Finally, there is Jalen Elliott. 

As for Atlanta’s defense, their leading sacker last season was Calais Campbell who is no longer on the team. Campbell had 6 ½ sacks to his credit. Jessie Bates III led the team in interceptions with six and he returns. In the off-season the Falcons added linebacker Matthew Judon, which excites that fan base and Justin Simmons. So, they will be improved. 

Defensive advantage: Clearly the Steelers. 

Intangibles:

Several things to consider. First, and foremost, Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith gets his shot at revenge on the team that fired him as head coach last year. Secondly, Mike Tomlin has had rather good success on the road. Last season the Steelers won five of eight on the road, 6-4 the year before that. Heading into this season opener, many believe the Atlanta Falcons are serious playoff contenders and even potential division winners. As for the Steelers, most are down on the Black and Gold, some thinking marginal playoff team others see Mike Tomlin finally having a losing season or at a minimum missing the post season. The Steelers have much to prove and come in with a chip on their shoulders knowing they are being taken seriously.

Prediction:

I like the Steelers to open some eyes from the opening gun and will be all over Kirk Cousins. Watch for big plays from Minkah Fitzpatrick and rookie Payton Wilson on defense with T.J. Watt being his usual self and Nick Herbig doing what he did last year with at least one big play. I can see Russell Wilson hitting George Pickens for at least one big play and at least a touchdown if not more than one.

Final score? Steelers 30 Falcons 17.