Steelers - Saints Preview & Prediction

Story by Yinzer Crazy Featured Steelers Contributor Adam Davidson. Follow him on Twitter @Adam_J_Davidson

In most cases, a bye week in football provides an opportunity to reflect on the season so far and to rest aching bones and sore muscles. For the 2-6 Pittsburgh Steelers however, there’s just not enough time to reflect on the many ways this team has squandered its opening half of the 2022 season. From an anemic offense and a less-than-stellar start for Kenny Pickett, to a defense that has been unable to correct course after losing TJ Watt, the Steelers have too many issues and perhaps not enough time to correct them. That doesn’t mean anyone's waving a white flag.

“I believe we still got a chance,” Diontae Johnson said of the team’s approach going into November. “We can make it to the playoffs, and the season isn’t over.”

That’s high confidence from a young wideout to boast of his team’s chances at 2-6, especially after losing teammate Chase Claypool in a trade with Chicago. Johnson, now the de-facto leader in the receiving corps, may be taking a cue from his head coach Mike Tomlin, who happens to know a thing or two about slow starts.

Tomlin’s been down this road before, having started the season at 2-6 in 2013 before putting things together and coming mere plays away from making the playoffs. In this sense, the Steelers head coach would be wise to dust off some old film and old headlines - ones that derisively wrote off the Steelers’ chances before the season had finished. After suffering losses to the likes of Super Bowl contenders Buffalo and Philadelphia, the team now thankfully has a favorable second-half schedule beginning this Sunday, starting with a visit from the 3-6 New Orleans Saints.

On paper, there’s not much separating the records of the NFL’s two “black and gold” franchises. Both teams have been hindered by an underperforming unit that has lacked explosive plays. For the Steelers, it’s their offense that has failed to gain chunks of yardage and put up enough points to stay in ball games. For the Saints, it’s a defense that hemorrhages points and currently ranks well in the bottom tier league-wide in points surrendered. When Pittsburgh gets the ball on offense this Sunday, it will be a matter of who breaks through first. Will the Steelers put it all together in front of a home crowd clamoring for a win? Or will the Saints defense stifle the Steelers’ attack once more, after having won the previous three inter-conference matchups?

A lot will depend on the Saints’ pass-rush, and it will be a Saints pass rusher who will garner his fair share of attention despite TJ Watt returning to the fold for the Steelers.

Saints’ linebacker Demario Davis has generated significant pressure through the interior this season, setting a career-high with six sacks. Throw in one fumble recovery for good measure, and Davis has the potential to make life worse for the mistake-prone rookie Kenny Pickett. And in the running game, Davis is a terror in tackling the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage, a fact that ought to give Najee Harris recurring nightmares in prepping for Sunday’s matchup.

If the Steelers can draw one singular conclusion about their offense amidst the good-and-bad, off-and-on performance of Kenny Pickett, their wide receivers, and their offensive line, it may be that their running game just hasn’t had the spark it needs to help their young quarterback. Najee Harris has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry so far, and it would be wise to factor Jaylen Warren into the Steelers rushing attack - not simply to give Harris a breather - but to jolt the Steelers offense in much the same way Tomlin attempted to jolt his team by switching to Pickett under center. Warren has proven his worth not just in terms of blitz pickup, but in both catching and running the ball out of the backfield, nearly doubling Harris’ yards-per-carry output.

The Steelers ability to sustain long drives and dominate time of possession will dictate who wins Sunday, and part of their gameplan must involve Warren, especially considering Saints stalwart cornerback Marshon Lattimore and lineman Marcus Davenport are currently listed as questionable for this Sunday afternoon. In addition, with kicker Chris Boswell out and Matthew Wright in, the Steelers may be forced to prolong more drives and consider keeping their offense on the field to convert on fourth down.

With this offensive gameplan in mind, the Steelers might be set for cruise control on defense, knowing they can dust off old playbooks in anticipation for a former Bengal to make his return to Pittsburgh.

Andy Dalton, the Bengals’ second all-time franchise leader in passing yardage, will make the start for New Orleans after supplanting the injured and ineffective Jameis Winston in week six. Dalton, who has provided some bright moments in a down year for New Orleans, has been rather inconsistent. In a Thursday Night matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, Dalton threw four touchdowns, but could not overcome throwing three interceptions. The loss dropped the Saints to 2-5 on the year and since then, Saints head coach Dennis Allen has scrambled to find more ways to infuse the “Slash-esque” quarterback Taysom Hill into his offense. With Hill manning the offense, the Steelers will be forced to put a spy on the athletic QB, knowing the stationary Dalton provides little challenge the veteran defensive unit isn’t accustomed to seeing. Indeed, with Hill in the game, the Steelers’ pressure may be toned down, even with a ravenous TJ Watt returning on a “pitch count.”

The Saints’ passing game however is without one of their premiere weapons, wideout Michael Thomas. Thomas, on IR since November 3rd, will likely miss the remainder of the Saints’ season, which opens up more opportunity for running back Alvin Kamara as a receiver. Four years ago, Kamara torched a Steelers secondary in the SuperDome on basic wheel routes, providing scoring opportunities in a close contest that happened to be Antonio Brown's final game as a Steeler. Recent history aside, the Steelers will have to make due with who they have on defense versus the multi-faceted Kamara, with cornerbacks Akhello Witherspoon and newly acquired corner William Jackson III as limited participants in practice this week. Myles Jack, who’s been a noticeable bright spot on the defense both in coverage and as a reliable tackler, is also on the injury report with a back issue.

For two teams who bookended the calendar year of 2009 as Super Bowl champions, the Steelers and Saints don’t have to look long and far to consult with those who know what it takes to win the big one. They have the know-how and resolve to get to where they need to go this year, but leave it to Mike Tomlin to provide the necessary edge to his team, coming off a long week and returning home for the first time in almost a month. While many fans may have their doubts - a fact that may be reflected in a relatively low attendance number at Acrisure - Tomlin and crew know they have what it takes. This Sunday, a new season starts for Pittsburgh, and it will be the NFL’s original “black and gold” franchise that walks away victorious.

Prediction: Steelers 28, Saints 20