Russ vs. Fields - who should start for Steelers?

After dropping the second straight loss on Sunday Night Football, the promising 3-0 start to the Steelers season had turned to pessimism and speculation. The defense, which is the highest paid in the NFL, had been underwhelming the last two games. While the defense does serve some scrutiny for its inability to get stops in crucial moments and get off the field on third down, it should be noted they have given the offense chances.

On defense the Steelers rank 5th in opponent time of possession, are top 10 in turnovers created with 8, and have only allowed roughly 14 points per game through their first 5 games. On top of that the Steelers defense ranks in the top 5 in red zone defense. So, while teams are able to move on Pittsburgh, they haven’t really been able to do much in terms of scoring. 

In conjunction with those defensive efforts the Steelers rank in the top 5 of offensive time of possession, averaging about 32 minutes a game of possessing the football. So, they don’t let the other team score, and they have the ball A LOT. So how is this team not 5-0? Not shockingly, they aren’t scoring themselves. The Steelers are middle of the road when it comes to total points and points per game and pretty much every other offensive statistic. 

In the Dallas game alone the Steelers didn’t generate a single point from the 3 turnovers and 1 blocked kick. A simple field goal and the game goes into overtime at the very least. The Steelers very obviously have an offensive issue. Most glaring is their inability to produce on first and second downs. The Steelers face almost 13 3rd downs a game which is among the highest in the NFL. 

Their offense is playing on their heels for a good majority of the game. This could be in part due to the fact the Steelers have not been healthy across the Offensive Line having started 4 different Oline combinations across 5 games. It could also come from a very timid offensive approach. The Steelers very clearly want to run the football. On the opening possession against Dallas the Steelers went over conservative on 3 and 8 in plus territory, calling a toss play (with their fourth running back I may add) that resulted in a Chris Boswell field goal. 

It would seem to me that the Steelers are relying on their defense, and actually playing for field goals. While it is a worthwhile philosophy to end every offensive series with a kick, it clearly isn’t resulting in much for the Steelers right now. The Steelers do have an OC in Arthur Smith, in his first year with the team, coaching a quarterback  in his first year with the team, in his first year, running this style of offense. It is understandable why they want to be conservative and why they want to protect Justin Fields. But, they are a run first conservative offense to a fault at this point. 

The last two games, Fields has been incredibly productive in the second half, and was completely responsible for any offense against the Colts. But to some, the question remains, is it time for Russell Wilson? It makes sense people are calling for Russell Wilson out of sheer curiosity alone. Wilson was the presumed starter in Pittsburgh even after they traded for Fields and this was confirmed after camp, and to this point, there has been no change in the depth chart. So technically Fields has been acting in a backup capacity not the full time starter…technically. In my eyes, keeping Wilson as the number one QB on the depth chart is a strategic play by Tomlin, so if he does have to start Wilson, he can say he is just going to be the starter he named in camp. 

But that depth chart doesn’t reflect the reality of the situation. The Steelers have a QB controversy on their hands, and after two straight losses that included slow offensive starts, it is not unreasonable to evaluate the QB position. So, let’s evaluate.

Statistically, Fields is admittedly not blowing anyone out of the water. He is 14th in completion percentage, 21st in total yards and yards per game, 17th in passing touchdowns, 22nd in QBR and 11th in passer rating. Not hard to say that Fields has a lot of room to grow despite some good moments across his first five starts as a Steeler. It is important to put these stats within context though. The Steelers don’t give Fields a lot of opportunities to be free at the QB position. They are 3rd in the league in rushing attempts per game while 13th in rushing yards per game. This leads to ineffective play action and turns Fields into a crucial part of the running game. The Steelers also rank in the top half of the league in passes dropped. It is also important to keep in mind Fields has won 7 out of his last 11 starts. 

Nonetheless, Fields does have some growing left to do, so lets take a look at Wilson. He is a veteran QB that has a history of throwing a great deep ball, and typically can read defenses well. He also has a super bowl win under his belt. So, from an experience perspective, Wilson does have the upper hand. Last year Wilson was 12th in completion percentage, 9th in passing touchdowns, 19th in total yards, 20th in yards per game, 21st in QBR, and 8th in passer rating. From statistics alone there isn't any kind of significant improvement. Passing touchdowns is the only area where Wilson has a major lead, but that was last year, on a different team.

Wilson had a more reliable receiving group and offensive system in Denver than he would in Pittsburgh. In an effort to be impartial to Wilson, the opposite side of that argument is that he was able to be as good as he was under a head coach that was open about his dislike for his starting quarterback. But to be honest it is hard to see any compelling argument for Rusell Wilson to start.

Fields is undeniably more dynamic than Wilson. In fact, he leads the team in rushing touchdowns with three. The rest of the team has a combined 0. Fields has been a key component to the running game in Pittsburgh and his rushing attempts have been some of the most effective. At his age, that will not be the case with Wilson. With injuries to Warren and Patterson the Steelers need Fields to keep up his rushing as a change of pace. Wilson is going to be far less dynamic with his legs than Fields especially with his injury. 

The offensive line has struggled to provide clean pockets and while Wilson is still going to be mobile, at his age it will be a limited version of what he used to be, and a significant downgrade from what Fields can do with his legs and as an athlete. This would almost certainly be a detriment to the offense if Wilson takes over.

Another aspect fans should consider when begging for Wilson is that he is going to be rusty in his first start, maybe longer. We are five weeks into the season and Wilson has only just begun being a full participant in practice. Whatever rhythm and chemistry this offense has found, will be undone with starting a new QB 6 or 7 weeks into the season. Essentially the offense will be starting from square 1 even with Wilson's experience.

To make a change at quarterback you have to believe or know there will be a significant change. For me, it is hard to identify any evidence that would be the case. Outside of just having a veteran playing, starting Wilson isn't going to change the talent and effort in the receiver room. Wilson won’t make the WRs run their routes with more effort, block better, create more separation, or simply catch the ball. Also, the touchdown Fields scored against Indy, lowering his shoulder against a linebacker and getting into the endzone, doesn’t happen with Wilson. What Wilson lacks as a runner in comparison to Fields, he would have to make up for with his arm, and I don’t see that being the case. 

Yes the offense has struggled, but simply changing the QB is just a distraction from what the issues actually are in Pittsburgh. It's essentially putting a bandaid on a bullet hole. If the Steelers were in a position to win now, make a serious push for a championship, and Fields was struggling, then maybe you go to Wilson. But that's not the case. Wilson is a wild card here, and a risk. If you bench Fields, and Wilson steps in and plays poorly, then you're left with another decision to go back to Fields or not, and that would inevitably lead to disaster. Flip flopping quarterbacks is a sure fire way to lose your team completely, because you're not showing confidence in a single starter, or in your offense. How could you expect your team to be  confident?

When it comes to the offense we need to keep in mind that we are on a new offensive coordinator with Artie Smith. Things are going to take time to fall in place with a new offense and new coach. With limited practice time and offseason training there was less time for the Steelers to mesh as an offense out of season, so they have to do it in season. That would be the reason for some of the miscues we have seen. So, a little patience is going to be necessary. For the most part we are seeing that across the league that offenses are not hitting on all cylinders just yet, so there is hope. There have been improvements from last year, specifically time of possession and less 3 and outs. But, we need to put the ball in the endzone.

Last point, neither Wilson or Fields are under contract for the Steelers next year, so they do need to be careful. The Steelers have far more invested in Fields than Wilson, and if they bench him they run the risk of another team signing him. The worst case scenario here is Wilson steps in and doesn’t play well enough to earn a second contract in Pittsburgh, they mishandle Fields and he walks, and they are left with Kyle Allen. That would be an unbridled cluster... At the end of the day the NFL is a business and they do need to make whatever decision is best for winning games first and foremost, but just something to keep in mind.

When it is all said and done there just is no compelling reason to start Wilson. I simply can’t see how he would turn the offensive production around. Outside of his veteran experience and being listed first on the depth chart, to me it feels like the risks of starting Wilson outweigh any potential benefits for this team.